As the Chinese sayings go "Hero fails to escape a beauty's trap".
US markets: Midterm shock vs Economic data
@JC888：
Recap. Last week was the ‘surprising’ week of Democratic sweeping midterm election victories that subsequently, sparked immediate investor fear over impending tech and AI regulatory crackdowns. The political shockwave triggered a massive tech rout that erased trillions in market value and forced major indices into a correction. Consequently, typically crucial US economic reports were completely buried as Wall Street panicked over the unfolding political and corporate. By the time market called it a week: DJIA: -1.39% (-722.5 to 51,285.73). S&P 500: -3.07% (-233.97 to 7,376.86). Nasdaq: -3.99% (-1,020.75 to 24,579.42). The VIX Index. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) also experienced a massive surge last week, skyrocketing from Monday’s 21.15 to Thursday’s peak of 28.18. This as market anxieties intensified. On Friday, the fear index pulled back slightly to close the week at 25.64, though it remained significantly elevated compared to the prior week's levels. US Economic Reports. Regardless of how US mid-term election has impacted the US market, it is still imperative to know US reports because they reveal US economy's true health. These macroeconomic indicators ultimately drive long-term market trends far more than political events. Reports released for the week: 02 Nov 2026 - US Manufacturing PMI. 03 Nov 2026 - US Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover survey 04 Nov 2026 - US ADP Non-farm payroll. 04 Nov 2026 - US Trade balance. 04 Nov 2026 - US Services PMI. 05 Nov 2026 - US Jobless claims. 06 Nov 2026 - US Consumer sentiments. 06 Nov 2026 - US Non-farm payroll. US Manufacturing PMI. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI final report is still considered a strong report with a minor softening trend. Final headline index recorded 54.9 for October 2026. While this missed the market forecast of 56.0 and slipped from September 2026’s 55.9, it marked the 15th consecutive month of robust sector expansion. Both production and new orders continued to grow, though the expansion pace moderated slightly from September 2026. US Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTs). US job openings for September 2026, surged +333,000 to 7.52 million vs Dow Jones/Bloomberg market consensus estimate of 7.15 million vs upwards revised August 2026’s 7.19 million. Job openings increased in the following sectors : Professional & business services (+106,000 jobs). State and local government, excluding education (+104,000). Manufacturing (+54,000). Construction (+36,000). Wholesale trade (+21,000). Other metrics. Hires and total separations changed little at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Layoffs and discharges slumped to 1.641 million, the lowest level since March 2025. Quits rose to 3.37 million. According to US Bureau of Labour Statictics (BLS) - “quits rate”, that measures - percentage of people voluntarily leaving their jobs each month, climbed to 2.1%, the highest in over a year. US ADP Non-farm payroll. US ADP Non-farm payroll report for October 2026 is best characterized as a moderately resilient, stabilizing report that beat expectations rather than an outright "strong" or "weak" print. Private employment rose by 86,000 jobs vs Wall Street consensus of 69,000 vs September 2026’s downwards revised 86,000. For the month, the services sector accounted for most of the growth +82,000 jobs. The goods sector made up of manufacturing, construction, natural resources added only 4,000 jobs. Education and healthcare remain job growth engines, though visibly slower than before, compared to +55,000 previously. Finance as well as professional and business services continue to reduce employment. Wage growth for job changers accelerated to +7.6% YoY, while for job stayers it remained at +4.4%. Strong sectors are pulling the overall statistics upward, confirming the "K-shaped" economy recently discussed by FOMC members. Meanwhile, interest rate-sensitive industries like construction & manufacturing continue to face weaker demand. US Trade balance. For September 2026, US trade deficit narrowed and improved marginally to -$105 billion vs market consensus of -107.9 billion vs August 2026’s $105.7 billion. The value of exports rose +1.9% (to a 5-month high of $321.5 billion), led by an increase in outbound shipments of capital goods. Imports increased +1.2%, also led by a surge in business equipment: Value of inbound capital goods (including computers and accessories, semiconductors and telecommunications equipment), rose $11.6 billion from a month earlier to a fresh record. US companies are spending heavily on imported technology to ramp up artificial intelligence capacity. Imports of industrial supplies, that include oil and petroleum products, fell US$3.7 billion from a month earlier. Exports of industrial supplies decreased US$1 billion. US Services PMI The final October 2026 report is strong but cooling, as it indicates robust expansion but missed market expectations. The Services PMI came in lower at 56.1 vs analysts’ forecast of 57.9 vs September 2026’s near 5 years high of 58.8. Despite moderation, latest figure continues to indicate robust growth across the services sector, with technology, consumer-facing, and financial services industries delivering solid performances. Supported by strong market demand, new business inflows increased sharply, and service providers expanded their workforces. However, the growth rates for both business activity & new orders cooled from September 2026’s highs amidst elevated inflation and broader economic uncertainty. Operating expenses surged in October, driven by higher fuel prices, that forced companies to accelerate the rate at which they raised their own selling prices. This inflationary pressure weighed on sentiment, causing business confidence to weaken and fall to its lowest level since May 2026. US Jobless Claims. Latest jobless claims reports reflect a strong and highly resilient US labour market, still operating in a "low hire & low-fire" environment. Hiring remains cautious due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and actual layoff activity remains near historic lows. Weekly claims. For week ending 31 Oct 2026, weekly claims fell by -6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 189,000 claims vs market estimates of 197,000 vs previous week’s upwards revised 195,000. (see below) The positive momentum also pulled the 4-week moving average down by -2,250 to 194,750, marking the 8th consecutive week that weekly claims remained below the critical 200,000 threshold. Persistent suppression of new claims signals robust baseline retention by employers heading into the holiday season. Continuing claims. For week ending 24 Oct 2026, continuing claims rose by +23,000 claims to 1.718 million vs market estimates of 1.71 million vs previous week’s 1.695 million. (see above) As with similar previous reports, while layoffs are rare, finding a new position takes slightly more time. Consequently, the 4-week moving average for continuing claims edged up marginally by +1,000 to 1.7095 million, indicating that companies are hiring more slowly. Comparatively speaking, the total number of people on benefits is still low compared to the past and remains well below the 2.0 million mark that signals a weak economy, usually. US Consumer Sentiments For November 2026 preliminary report, US consumer sentiments rose to a 3-month high of 51.0 vs market consensus of 48.1 vs last month’s final readings of 48.0. Although the headline index showed a +6.3% MoM increase from October, it remains stubbornly near historic lows, just slightly above May 2026’s all-time low of 44.8. Cost of living concerns remain top of mind for many Americans consumers. About 57% of respondents spontaneously mentioned that high prices had eroded their living standards — the highest since May. Despite limited lay-offs and strong economic growth, household finances have been squeezed as prices rise faster than wages. Democrats’ decisive victory in the midterm elections reflected deep voter frustration with the economy, particularly the high cost of food, gasoline and housing. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, a 3-month low. They also think that costs will climb at an annual rate of 3.4% over the next 5 - 10 years, a step down from the prior month. US Non-Farm payroll. For October 2026, US jobs report was strong, showing widespread hiring momentum and a lower unemployment rate. US non-farm payrolls increased 165,000 vs market estimates of 65,000 vs September 2026’s upwards revised 60,000. Healthcare and social assistance employers added about 55,000 workers to payrolls in October, the most in 6 months. That sector has been the biggest driver of job growth in recent years. Information and financial activities sectors, which have seen some of the fastest rates of job loss and AI adoption in 2026, showed tentative signs of stabilisation in October. At the same time, according to US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), unemployment rate fell to 4.1% : Employers across a broad range of sectors added jobs This includes in professional and business services, healthcare and manufacturing. Overall private-sector payroll growth was the strongest since March 2026. Month to month, job growth has been uneven, but overall hiring has been strong enough to keep the unemployment rate low. Last but not least, latest report also suggested the labour market is generating little wage pressure. Average hourly earnings advanced +3.1% YoY, matching the slowest pace since 2021. On a monthly basis, however, they rose +0.4%, topping forecasts. The wage figures highlight a key source of voter frustration last week's midterm elections. While the unemployment rate has been low, pay has not kept up with rising inflation throughout most of 2026. What’s Next ? For the coming weeks, US market will begin to pivot from midterm elections shockwaves. Attention will likely turn toward how the incoming legislative landscape shapes regulatory policy for AI and data centers. At the same time, Wall Street will continue digesting ongoing corporate earnings and mega-cap quarterly reports to gauge fundamental tech demand. Notable companies releasing their latest quarterly reports include: $Paramount Skydance Corp(SKYD)$ - first earnings report since WBD acquisition. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ - first follow up since its debt scarce. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ Beyond corporate earnings, traders will continue to monitor upcoming US economic reports for the week. They will also continue to monitor and determine whether the broader economy can sustain its momentum amid lingering inflation and interest rate pressures. All these is in preparation for an accurate forecast on whether US central bank will hike interest rate for the last time in December 2026. Agree ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Diamonds are a girl's best friend ? No More ! ETF - BWET BNO BBLS.. win in Oct selloff ? SOFI's $32 peak : Rally or Pipe Dream ? Do you think strong quarterly earnings this week, will outweigh post-election fears? Do you think fresh economic data/report will calm markets or fuel another sell-off? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents
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