Nebius’s $27 Billion Selloff Meets Its Q3 Earnings Test: 120 Is the Line to Hold
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ lost $27 billion market cap in five weeks without reporting a single number. Thursday morning it finally gets to talk.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ is at 134, down from a 250 close on Oct 6 and 56% off the 299.86 high. Last Thursday flushed to 113.30, Monday bounced 9% to 141, and today gave most of it back. Options are pricing a 17% move on the print, which puts 110 and 155 in play by Friday.
Key Catalysts
Q3 print: Street wants about $906M in revenue, up 55% from $582M last quarter. June's run rate alone covers roughly $750M of that, so the bar is low.
ARR guide: Management has held $7B to $9B ARR by year end all year. Reaffirm it Thursday and the selloff has nothing left to stand on.
Contracted demand:
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Meta Platforms(META)$ have signed for tens of billions in capacity, and about 70% of last quarter's deals came with cash up front. Customers are paying for the buildout.
Two Zones to Watch
Zone 1: 120 to 135. Thursday's 120.37 close, Friday's 122.62 low and Monday's 128.51 low all sit inside it. If it holds, 155 is the retest.
Zone 2: 70 to 85. Where the year opened at 83.71 and the February weekly low at 79.69. Lose 80 and the 73.52 yearly low is next
Hold 120 through the earnings print and this selloff was the entry. Buying the dip is always easiest in hindsight, remember that.
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