Big Tech Stock 2Q21 Earnings Outlook
The 2021Q2 financial reporting season is at its peak. This week, more than 820 companies will announce their results, including 176 S&P 500 index companies, accounting for more than 1/3 of the total number of members of the index.
Technology giants made a big debut,$Apple(AAPL)$,$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$,$Amazon.com(AMZN)$,$Microsoft(MSFT)$,$Alphabet(GOOG)$,$Facebook(FB)$,$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$All of them will announce their results this week. FAAMG, the top five companies, together account for 23.3% of the total market value of S&P 500 Index.
Companies that will report their wealth this week are as follows:
Monday
Tesla Motors will announce its second-quarter results after hours on Monday (July 26th).
In the second quarter, as the production capacity of Chinese factories continued to expand, the output and delivery volume reached a new high in the quarter. The delivery volume of Tesla Motors Q2 more than doubled compared with the same period of last year, and the annual consensus was 863,000 vehicles. In view of this, we expect the revenue in the second quarter to continue to reach a new quarterly high.
Investors are most concerned about whether the company updates the annual delivery guidelines. At present, the general consensus on the delivery volume is about 850,000 vehicles. If this figure is exceeded, it will greatly boost market sentiment.
Tuesday
Apple will announce its financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2021 on July 28th. The market expects Apple Q3 revenue to reach 73 billion US dollars, compared with 59.685 billion US dollars in the same period last year, and earnings per share are expected to be 1.01 US dollars.
In the last quarter, Apple did not provide detailed third-quarter performance guidance. However, due to the strong sales of iPhone 12, the continuous demand for iPad and Mac driven by the trend of distance education and working at home, and the continuous growth of service field, the management expects Q3 to show "strong double-digit growth". However, the company also said that due to supply chain problems and the delay in the launch of iPhone, it is expected that the month-on-month decline may be large.
In the third quarter, Apple released a series of new software updates, including iOS15 and MacOS Monterey. In terms of hardware, Apple launched M1 iPad Pro, new Apple TV 4K and AirTag tracking accessories.
At the same time, the third fiscal quarter will be the last complete accounting quarter before the launch of the new iPhone in September, and the demand for iPhone12 has not slowed down before the launch of iPhone 13.
Microsoft is expected to continue its strong revenue performance in the fourth quarter. According to Bloomberg's unanimous forecast, Microsoft's revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021 was US $44.27 billion, up 16.4% year-on-year, and its adjusted net profit was US $14.574 billion, up 30.1% year-on-year.
A strong rebound in corporate IT spending will help Dynamics, Azure and LinkedIn's revenue growth. At the end of June, nearly six years after the release of Windows 10, Microsoft finally released a new version of desktop operating system Windows 11, which will support the future PC revenue, ease the slowdown of consumer PC revenue, and possibly start to pick up commercial computer revenue. Boosted by this, Microsoft became the second American company with a market value exceeding $2 trillion after Apple.
Alphabet, the parent company of Alphabet, will announce its financial report for the second quarter of 2021 on July 28, Beijing time. So far this year, Alphabet's share price has risen by 50%, leading FAANG.
Driven by global advertising spending and search, YouTube and cloud computing businesses, Alphabet will grow at a compound annual rate of 24% over the next three years.
Specifically, due to the low base in the same period last year, it is expected that the core advertising business revenue of Q2 Company may accelerate to 50% after the economic growth is fully restarted, and the growth rate of advertising revenue from YouTube may exceed 65%. This part of business has high user stickiness and user participation.
Cloud business is catching up, accounting for more than 7% of the global market in April. It is estimated that cloud business revenue will increase by 45-50% this quarter, which is basically the same as that in the first quarter.
Bloomberg unanimously predicted that AMD's revenue in the second quarter was $3.613 billion, up 87.2% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was USD 667 million, up 208.9% year-on-year.
In this quarter, the strong market demand for PC and cloud servers continued to drive AMD's CPU and GPU chip revenue to grow rapidly. Among them, C&G (computing and graphics) business revenue is expected to grow the fastest, because the sales of higher-priced AMD Ryzen processors and high-end AMD Radeon graphics cards continue to grow, and AMD mobile processor revenue may record for the seventh consecutive quarter.
In addition, server CPU, server GPU, Sony PS and Microsoft Xbox game consoles will all drive AMD's revenue growth. Therefore, considering the growth of cloud server CPU and the growth of game console business, AMD's ESC department may exceed the growth forecast of 233% in the second quarter.
Wednesday
Aviation giant Boeing will announce its financial report for the second quarter of 2021 on July 28th (next Wednesday). According to Bloomberg's unanimous forecast, Boeing's revenue in the second quarter of 2021 is US $16.886 billion, up 43.7% year-on-year, and its adjusted net loss is US $364 million, up 85.5 year-on-year.
Year-to-date, the total number of orders in Boeing has increased from 59 to 599, and the net orders have increased from-323 to 243, which has greatly improved the total order situation. Boeing Q2 delivered a total of 79 aircraft, including 50 737, 12 787, 8 777, 8 767 and 1 747. In the first half of 2021, a total of 156 aircraft were delivered, of which 737 were 113. The 737 MAX has successfully gone around in the United States, but it is still grounded in China. It is unknown when it will go around, but Boeing has passed the most difficult time.
Facebook, a social giant, will announce its second-quarter financial report after the close of business on July 28th. Facing the challenge of Tiktok and the impact of anti-monopoly investigation, Facebook has shown full resilience, with a cumulative increase of more than 25% year-to-date. Not long ago, its market value exceeded the trillion market value mark.
According to the management's second-quarter performance guidelines, Q2 revenue will remain stable or accelerate slightly, compared with the slowdown due to the influence of COVID-19 pandemic in the same period last year. At the same time, the company expects that the revenue growth in the third and fourth quarters will slow down significantly compared with the rapid growth experienced by the epidemic in the same period last year.
On the user side, it is estimated that the monthly active user growth rate of Facebook may drop from 12% in the same period last year to about 7% in the second quarter. In the second half of 2021, the monthly growth rate of Facebook's active users may drop to the middle single digit level, mainly because the number and activity of users reached the peak rapidly during the epidemic last year.
Thursday
Amazon.com will announce its second-quarter financial report after Thursday. The market expects Amazon.com's second-quarter revenue to be 115.11 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 29%; Earnings per share are expected to be $12.22, up 19% year-on-year, which is the last quarterly report of founder Bezos as CEO.
Thanks to the continuous growth of e-commerce and the "Prime Day" held in the second quarter, Amazon.com's revenue and net profit in this quarter are expected to easily beat market expectations for several consecutive quarters.
In terms of cloud business, Amazon.com continues to maintain its leading position in the field of cloud computing. Driven by the recovery of tourism and hotel-related industries, the increase of enterprise IT expenditure may promote AWS revenue growth by more than 30%, which is consistent with the market consensus.
According to Bloomberg's consensus forecast, Pinterest's second-quarter revenue was $562 million and its adjusted net profit was $82 million.
Similar to other social platforms, Pinterest's revenue growth will be greatly driven by the improvement of digital advertising pricing environment. MAU growth rate has remained above 30% in the past four quarters. Since the beginning of this quarter, user growth may slow down due to the high base in the same period of last year. The slowdown rate in the second half of the year is more significant with the reopening of the economy, especially the revenue accounts for about 80%The American region.
The management expects the global MAU growth rate to be around 15%, while the year-on-year percentage of MAU in the United States will be flat. We are positive about the long-term growth of Pinterest, and the accelerated penetration of e-commerce is a long-term downwind for the company. Compared with other social media platforms, Pinterest users show higher purchasing intentions.
In addition, the cooperation with Shopify may further enhance Pinterest's attractiveness to small and medium-sized advertisers.
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