To The Moon

I haven't talked with you about the Sino-US stock indexes for a long time. Since the interest rate hike cycle started in March, the Sino-US stock markets will enter a new state. Through the performance summary under the historical dollar cycle, we can have a general understanding of the future trend of the Sino-US stock indexes, so as to better lay out the future.

First, the intensity of passive "interest rate hikes" can be loose or tight

I have discussed with you very early that the US dollar interest rate hike is a corrective tightening under the US dollar depreciation cycle. The corrective tightening means adjustable, and the tightness depends on which data the Fed focuses on. If it focuses on inflation, it will continue to be eagle; On the contrary, we can try not to express our position to maintain the status quo. Therefore, from the past two cycles, after the interest rate hike cycle, a new round of banknote printing is always needed to activate the economy.​​

We don't know the extent of the final rate hike and tightening, but the easing cycle after that is the opportunity we expect.

Second, the characteristics of the US stock index depreciation cycle

The essence of American stock index to America and real estate to China is the same, that is, the reservoir of funds. Crash is an unbearable pain,Maintaining the current market value is rising steadily, and exchanging time for space is the best solution. Therefore, the US stock index is buy& except for one or two short-selling in stages; Hold's strategy.

Of course, some tiger friends will ask, can that stock be held for a long time? The answer must be to treat them differently.The index is a symbol of confidence, and its decline means that the market collapses and individual stocks fall more. As long as the index does not fall sharply, it is not a problem for local stocks and sectors to clear, so for individual stocks, index stocks are relatively safe, while non-index stocks look at luck.​​

However, the U.S. stock index has the probability of substantial adjustment at the end of junior high school when it depreciates, but it is currently in the middle stage of depreciation. After the mid-term adjustment of depreciation, the US stock index is characterized by slow bull after slowing down. That is, a high-level volatile market.To put it simply, it is difficult to have the excess return rate of the stock market in the previous two years. Instead, it is a volatile market that tests patience, and the stock index buy&; Hold is still the option, but the yield has dropped greatly. The specific strategy can still be laid out according to the multi-space basis given in previous posts.

Third, the opportunities of A shares in the depreciation cycle of the US dollar

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has forced a large amount of European funds to flee Europe (after all, fearing the intensification of war), and besides some of the funds fleeing back to the United States, another small amount of funds may be considered flowing into China. Looking at the world, China's economic fundamentals are not bad. What is really bad is the credit environment. In the past two years, in order to suppress the real estate squeeze real estate bubble, China has been strictly controlling the scale of water release, which makes it difficult for the stock market to rise sharply. However, the existence of a large number of stocks with low valuation and low price makes the index risk released and supported by new sectors.Therefore, as long as the policy is fully released, it is the best time for A shares to make profits.

From the US dollar cycle, when the US dollar index enters the final depreciation stage, it is often the time when foreign capital is madly flooding into emerging markets. If China releases water and superimposes the influx of foreign capital in the future, A shares will be the best investment target.​​

​Around 2000, China joined WTO, and since then, China's stock market has formed a connection with foreign capital. Under the depreciation cycle of the US dollar from 2001 to 2008, China's A shares have been a tepid and volatile market for the first two thirds of the time, and the last 07-08 saw a rapid rise. The fundamentals and internal causes are not shown for the time being. At least we can see that as long as we resist at this stage, it will be the time to harvest in the future. As for individual stocks, investing in stocks with low valuation and low increase at this stage will definitely have more advantages than track stocks such as new energy, medicine and liquor. Of course, you can wait and trade when the index breaks through, so the winning rate will be better.

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