To The Moon

ETF Edge #14

Originally posted on thepensivenugget.com

Some ETFs are showing signs of wanting to breakout, but have yet to do so decisively.

It is best to wait for the market to give us direction at this point, considering the deteriorating macro backdrop, and the potential for a resurgence in volatility from war headlines.

Waiting For Decisive Moves

• Most ETFs are hovering around key levels
• Watch for SPY$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$, QQQ$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$, XLY$Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$, XLRE$Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ to make decisive moves higher (or lower if the breakout fails)
• But, IWM$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ is still underperforming and looks to be stuck trading sideways for now
• XLU$Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ is still rallying strongly, making new all time highs
• XLI$Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ and XLF$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ are starting to look bearish

• Fixed Income ETFs are consolidating, but remain very weak
• Corporate bonds, LQD and HYG, are consolidating but still face the possibility of a fall to test 2020’s COVID lows 
• The large selloff in EM sovereign bonds has stalled and EMB is now consolidating
• TLT is also consolidating below major resistance

• Energy stocks (XLE$Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$) remain high but have so far failed to decisively break above their quadruple top

• Wildcards:
• Caution is warranted as long as small caps continue to underperform. In a bull market, they should be leading,not lagging rallies
• The US yield curve has gotten even flatter (2s10s now inverted) even as the Fed amps up its hawkish rhetoric

Trading Ideas - Performance

Trading Ideas - Commentary

• Volatility in the markets has led us to exit/stopped us out of some positions
• IWM stopped out for a gain of 1.43%
• XLY stopped out for a gain of 9.26%
• XLI stopped out for a loss of -3.45%
• XLF stopped out for a loss of -6.27%
• XLP stopped out for a loss of -3.14%
• Exited TLT for a gain of 1.72%, as the market focused on the “safe haven” bids narrative at the start of the Russian invasion at the end of Feb
• Exited XLE for a gain of 16.64% after oil’s sharp move higher and immediate reversal on 8 March
• Exited LQD for a gain of 5.56%, HYG for a gain of 4.16%, and EMB for a gain of 6.29%; as US long yields look like they have topped out and reversed

Trading Ideas - Long

• SPY, QQQ:
• These 2 major indices are looking to breakout decisively to the upside, which would open up the possibility of a rally to retest their all time highs
• XLY is not considered for a long as it offers the same high beta exposure as QQQ. Also, with the yield curve now inverted, downside risk is much higher for consumer discretionary stocks

• XLRE:
• Could also retest its highs with a decisive move off its current levels
• US housing market (on the national level) is still bullish, as demonstrated byhigher mortgage rates

Trading Ideas - Short

• IWM has begun to trade sideways but is underperforming the SPY and QQQ
• If US equities turn down again small caps will probably lead the way lower
• Wait for the market to signal which direction it wants to move in as IWM has yet to make a decisive breakout of its range between $191-$208.5

• XLI and XLF are starting to look weak even as US major indices are looking to breakout to the upside
• If the major indices do breakout, and long positions are initiated, shorting XLI and/or XLF could act as a hedge, if not a pair trade (if hedging, be wary of beta mismatches)

• EEM recently broke below its well established bearish channel, and is looking very weak even with its bounce

• EZU and FXI are also good short candidates, as their charts still look bearish
• FXI is trickier to trade now as the Chinese government has verbally intervened to halt the selloff in Chinese stocks

US major indices hover at major resistance… SPY

• SPY is still trying to make a decisive move above major resistance at $457 after only managing a brief breakout last week
• A decisive break could see a test of all time highs at $479
• Range trading between $410-$457 is also possible

US major indices hover at major resistance… QQQ

• US tech stocks are also hovering around major resistance ~$367 after briefly breaking above last week
• A decisive breakout could see it rally >$400
• If not, consolidation between $340-$367 remains possible

And small caps continue to underperform… IWM

• US small caps also managed a brief breakout, but quickly fell back into their $191-$208.5 range
• They continue to lag the SPY & QQQ
• In a bull market, small caps should be leading, not lagging rallies

Financials fail to comeback and start to look bearish… XLF

• XLF failed to decisively return to its bullish channel ~$39, and failed to break above its downtrend ~$40
• It has now turned lower, with closest support ~$37.2

Energy stocks remain below their quadruple top… XLE

• XLE is still trading sideways below its quadruple top ~$78.5, as WTI hovers around $100
• Its reversal on 8 March could have marked the end of its bullish run

Industrials reverse sharply… XLI

• XLI managed to rally for a few more days above resistance ~$102.7, but reversed sharply below $102.7
• Sideways trading between $97.8-$102.7 is likely
• This reversal could signal the end of the rally, and a fall back to $94

Utilities remain at all time highs… XLU

• XLU is still rallying and making new all time highs, with yesterday marking the first lower close in 8 days
• Normally, utilities don’t do well in rising rate environments, but Russia’s war has upended energy/power markets

Consumer staples reach major resistance… XLP

• XLP’s rally took it close to major resistance at $76.9 before fading
• A decisive break could see XLP rally to the $78 region, if not consolidation between $74-$76.9 is possible

Consumer discretionary is also hovering at resistance… XLY

• XLY, like the major indices, managed a brief breakout above major resistance at $189.5, but failed to push higher
• A decisive break above could see a rally to test $212.5

Real estate stocks rally out of their range… XLRE

• XLRE has managed to rally out of its range, and is now consolidating above previous resistance at $48.8
• If the rally holds, a retest of highs at $52 is likely

The rally in European equities remains stalled… EZU

• EZU attempted to rally along with the major US indices, but failed to reach resistance at $45.7 before turning down again
• European stocks look weak relative to US equities and a further sharp selloff is still possible

EM stocks move higher… EEM

• EEM is rallying again after taking a breather last week
• It remains within its bearish channel for now (after breaking below in early March), and a fall back to retest its lows ~$40.7 is possible
• Major resistance lies ~$50

Bounce, or a new uptrend? The jury is still out on FXI

• FXI’s rally is back on track, as Chinese large caps break above $33.8
• Closest resistance now lies at $35.6 and $39.1
• It remains to be seen if this is just a bounce, or the start of a new uptrend

Investment grade corporate debt consolidates… LQD

• LQD is still consolidating around resistance at ~$120.7
• At this point, a fall to test major support at $105 (2020’s COVID low) will require UST yields to start rallying again

High yield corporates as well… HYG

• HYG is also consolidating, between $80.5 and $83.33
• Major support below that lies ~$78.35 and $67.5 (2020’s COVID low)
• Like LQD, further falls are possible at this point if UST yields start rallying again

EM sovereign bonds continue to consolidate… EMB

• EMB has managed to break above $97.5 and is now consolidating
• A further selloff to test 2020’s COVID low ~$85 remains possible if UST yields start rallying again

As the selloff in USTs eases into consolidation… TLT

• TLT has stopped selling off (higher yields) for now, and is now consolidating below major resistance at $133
• If it breaks above, a move higher to test $142.3 is possible, if not more consolidation seems likely

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