Biden bought himself time until the next winter with his 1 million bpd SPR #oil release over the next 6 months.
A thread about what needs to happen in the meanwhile, to get this supply deficit solved.
If the administration can't solve it - the next winter will be much worse...

1. Ramp up oil production in the US. Nevertheless, there are structural issues with that goal. Like not enough drilling activity, low investments into the sector over many years and companies that use the newly generated cash flow to increase shareholder value vs. investing more.

2. Get a nuclear deal done with Iran. Such a deal would have probably a direct impact on the supply situation. Without sanctions, Iran would be able to produce 500 to 750k bpd more.
Rystadt currently estimates that this could replace 75% of the current lost Russian supply.

3. Drive the economy into a recession to slow demand. We see more and more evidence of that happening.
An inverted yield curve, declining economic growth, monetary + fiscal policy stepping hard on the breaks. Actually a perfect cocktail for a recession in about a year or so.

4. IMO the OPEC currently could ramp up production more aggressively but they're not doing it because Russia is a part of OPEC+. Higher production would hurt Putin and therefore OPEC will increase production only as planned before the attack on Ukraine. So not much hope here.

5. BTW a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia won't solve the issue because sanctions would probably stay in place. With the invasion of Ukraine, Putin sacrificed his economy for several years. That won't be forgiven anytime soon by the West.
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