I think we r indeed in a bear

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Tall Guy
2022-05-16

I think we r indeed in a bear territory. However, hope we will not go into a deep bear. Hope turnaround will be sooner.

Bear Market Rally Has Started, but the Fall Hasn't Finished - Morgan Stanley

With equity "valuations now more attractive, equity markets so oversold and rates potentially stabil

Bear Market Rally Has Started, but the Fall Hasn't Finished - Morgan Stanley

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LimLS
·2022-05-16
Nasdaq had entered technically bear but SP500 and DJ yet to fall into bear. More declines are expected. Let's pray this will be a minor crash, not the major crash like 2000, 2008.
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- Tall Guy:
  yes, pray hard the stock mkt will not crash
  2022-05-16
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However, hope we will not go into a deep bear. Hope turnaround will be sooner.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020452171","repostId":2235386419,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235386419","pubTimestamp":1652671381,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2235386419?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-16 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Market Rally Has Started, but the Fall Hasn't Finished - Morgan Stanley","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235386419","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"With equity \"valuations now more attractive, equity markets so oversold and rates potentially stabil","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>With equity &#34;valuations now more attractive, equity markets so oversold and rates potentially stabilizing below 3%, stocks appear to have begun another material bear market rally,&#34; Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson says.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2500dd2c5caff5984d0e01e3de8a09f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>undefined undefined/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>&#34;After that, were main confident that lower prices are still ahead,&#34; Wilson wrote in a note Sunday. &#34;In S&amp;P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) terms we think that level is close to 3,400, which is where both valuation and technical support lie.&#34;</p><p>The bear market will last until either valuations fall to 14-15x &#34;that discount the kind of earnings cuts we envision, or earnings estimates get cut&#34; or earnings estimates are cut, he said.</p><p>Wilson said Morgan Stanley is getting less pushback on its less bullish view after Q1 earnings season.</p><p>&#34;First, while most companies handily beat consensus EPS forecasts, the bar had been lowered during the quarter more than usual. Second, the ratio of negative to positive earnings revisions spiked. Third, the quality of the earnings deteriorated as incremental operating margins rolled over for many companies and sectors, including many important large-cap technology stocks. Finally,2Q estimates for the S&amp;P 500 came down while full-year estimates were unchanged. This effectively raises the bar for the second half of the year, which is about the time the economy will be feeling the effects of higher rates and other headwinds.&#34;</p><p>On equity risk premium, at &#34;300bp, ERP is well below our year-end 340bp target, and is underestimating earnings risk ahead,&#34; Wilson said.</p><p>&#34;The question is will the equity market go ahead and discount the earnings cuts we think are coming or will it require companies to formally cut guidance? Given the pervasive bearishness now and extreme oversold conditions, we could see it play out either way.&#34;</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2235492043\" target=\"_blank\">Goldman says a recession will push the S&amp;P to 3,600.</a></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Market Rally Has Started, but the Fall Hasn't Finished - Morgan Stanley</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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Second, the ratio of negative to positive earnings revisions spiked. Third, the quality of the earnings deteriorated as incremental operating margins rolled over for many companies and sectors, including many important large-cap technology stocks. Finally,2Q estimates for the S&P 500 came down while full-year estimates were unchanged. This effectively raises the bar for the second half of the year, which is about the time the economy will be feeling the effects of higher rates and other headwinds.\"On equity risk premium, at \"300bp, ERP is well below our year-end 340bp target, and is underestimating earnings risk ahead,\" Wilson said.\"The question is will the equity market go ahead and discount the earnings cuts we think are coming or will it require companies to formally cut guidance? Given the pervasive bearishness now and extreme oversold conditions, we could see it play out either way.\"Goldman says a recession will push the S&P to 3,600.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":96,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":101798004,"commentId":"101798004","gmtCreate":1652677404759,"gmtModify":1663249431052,"authorId":3572923586954779,"author":{"id":3572923586954779,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorId":3572923586954779,"name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9020452171,"objectIdStr":"9020452171","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Nasdaq had entered technically bear but SP500 and DJ yet to fall into bear. More declines are expected. Let's pray this will be a minor crash, not the major crash like 2000, 2008.","text":"Nasdaq had entered technically bear but SP500 and DJ yet to fall into bear. More declines are expected. Let's pray this will be a minor crash, not the major crash like 2000, 2008.","html":"Nasdaq had entered technically bear but SP500 and DJ yet to fall into bear. More declines are expected. Let's pray this will be a minor crash, not the major crash like 2000, 2008.","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":101798079,"commentId":"101798079","gmtCreate":1652677897542,"gmtModify":1663249431344,"authorId":4092376851552610,"author":{"id":4092376851552610,"idStr":"4092376851552610","authorId":4092376851552610,"name":"Tall Guy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5e11acf97134ffdcfb93cea9aabffca0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9020452171,"objectIdStr":"9020452171","type":1,"supId":101798004,"supIdStr":"101798004","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"yes, pray hard the stock mkt will not <u>crash</u>","text":"yes, pray hard the stock mkt will not <u>crash</u>","html":"yes, pray hard the stock mkt will not <u>crash</u>"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}