To The Moon

I would like to share some thoughts on the trading session ahead of us. 20/05/2022. 

In recent months the market has been a terrible place to visit for investors and traders as a whole. Talks of the bear market, a looming recession and global economic crisis have filled the media and remains an endless topic of discussion. All of this is about to come to an abrupt end with change in sight.

The VIX volatility index is creating lower highs and the Spy is indicating a bottom has been reached. 

I have attached a few Charts with some simple technical analysis. The main goal of this post is to lift the spirits of all retail investors and traders that this post reaches. Ill admit this is my personal outlook on the market state, however there are some key points and information to take from the attached charts. The market is cyclical. Max fear will be reached in the coming trading session prompting millions to sell their hard earned and invested cash. Transfering it into the hands of institutions and smart money across the globe. 

In the next trading session it is entirely possible we will see a re-test of the bottom. Creating mass panic and insighting maximal fear. The sell of that begins will be swiftly bought by smart money. 

Here is some historical data showing what has happened after the market has reached a low from 1980. The Green diamonds are the market low of the year. The green bars represent the amazing ability the market showed to recover and mostly finish positive for the exact same year. As this chart shows. A point of maximum fear and chaos is reached. The rubber band is stretched to breaking point before recoiling sharply. Sell at maximum fear and you are locking in a loss that you would have soon recovered from. The exceptions to this are stated in the chart, The GFC (Global financial crisis)

and the DCC (dot com bubble/crisis). My personal opinion is that we are nowhere near the global economic turmoil faced in these periods of history.

Even the thought of a recession is a year away. Financial institutions like banks are known for performing poorly during recessions. Anyone who has been paying attention to moves made by incredibly successful investors recently, will see that they are infact spending billions buying up the shares of companies like Citigroup (NYSE: C). If a recession were looming. This move currently makes no sense.

The final example I would like to share is another relating to market psychology. This is a testiment to where we are currently positioned and the market has been lead here multiple times in history, only to recover and leave the retail investor beginning the next cycle; buying once again at the peak of financial risk. The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

Id Like to wish you all success in these hard times and a swift recovery. hold strong.