To The Moon

Certainly oversold but I believe it is only a temporary rebound. There are still many potential headwinds that will bring the share pricedown.

1) potential customer base remain only as potential until they are captured and remain loyal

I agree that many are still loyal users of Taobao but consumers are price sensitive. It's all about who has the right products at the best price and the best service/delivery. 

So, the pie is big but not easy to capture entirely.

2) supply chain disruptions/ Covid-19 policy

Will there be more disruptions with what is going on in the world right now?

On the other hand, if China keeps its zero covid-19 policy, Alibaba should benefit from it to some degree.

3) inflation and potential stagflation/ recession

The Chinese market is a special one. It doesnot entirely mirror the US market. But it is hard to escape global inflation. Consumers might be spending less.

Outside of e-commerce, its cloud and otherbusiness should still be driving revenue well.

But, the biggest unknown is government policy. This is the biggest factor that can move the stock prices crazily. This- we have no control over. As of now, it does appear to me that Alibaba has not been 'washed cleanly' to the government and may periodically be under bad press.