To The Moon

$Novavax(NVAX)$One week plus & we'll see what happens to this stock. Not hoping for much, just for it to get back to 200, am willing to cop a small loss, but TBH am not optimistic. 

1. The vaccine is not highly effective against the Omicron variant, the variant that's responsible forthe current Covid 19 spike in countries like Hong Kong, Malaysia & Singapore. 

2. A handful of countries, albeit mainly Nordic ones, have removed their vaccination mandate amongst their other Covid 19 regulations. Clearly, more countries are getting sick of the long drawn economic & social effects that the regulations havecaused & are ready to treat Covid 19 as just another regular virus as long as deaths stay relatively low & their healthcare system is coping. 

3. We assume many are reluctant to get vaccinated with a MRNA vaccine & if a non-MRNA vaccine is available they wouldn't be as hesitant. This isapparently not so, the Sinovac vaccine has bern available for some time already but still there is asmall pocket of population unvaccinated (of course this includes those who can't get vaccinated due to health reasons) even in Singapore where vaccination could be considered "compulsary". In Hong Kong, as much as 40% of the senior population are still refusing to get vaccinated even though they have access to Sinovac (there's a possibility that they may prefer the non-Chinese made Novavax non-MRNA vaccine, considering the tension between Hong Kong & China). 

4. As we know, a large population of the developed countries has been vaccinated. Some people are not comfortable with mixing vaccines for their booster shots. 

So really, we are relying on the distribution of thevaccine in developing countries with much less than ideal vaccination rates. Am unsure if there's a vaccination mandate in those countries. 

Of course, we don't even know if the management will screw up somewhere again. 

Am trying to be positive but sometimes reality is staring you right in the face & you just can't be oblivious to it. Still, miracles do happen, right? [Grin] Like maybe Covid 19 just completely gets eradicated by this year (would be bad for the vaccine stocks though) but it'll probably not happen (evenSARS hasn't been officially declared to be eradicated by WHO). 

Also, a little too late but I learnt that if a stock is not one that you're planning to hold (swing trading/ just an opportunistic buy), if it dips 15% just take the loss & sell as you don't want to be bag holding it if it drops by 70%. Great stocks are the ones that you should be holding even if they dip to 30-40%, not stocks like this one.