To The Moon

In the past two days, electric vehicles have released June sales data, and the situation is very good.

I'll first release the monthly data of each company, and then talk about two hidden worries.

First, Tesla sold 254695 vehicles in the second quarter of this year, up 26.6% year-on-year, but lower than the 261000 vehicles expected by the market.

Previously, musk made a bold statement that Tesla's annual growth rate would be more than 50% in the next few years. This time, Tesla's Shanghai plant was shut down due to the epidemic, which affected production.

BYD sold 134036 vehicles in June, with a year-on-year increase of 224% and a month on month increase of 16.6%. It is still excellent. Under the interference of the epidemic in the second quarter, it is worthy of being the king of new energy vehicles in China:

Li auto sold 13024 vehicles in June, with a total sales of 28687 vehicles in the second quarter, exceeding the upper limit of 24000 guidelines given by the management in the first quarter report:

NiO Inc sold 12961 vehicles in June. After five months, the sales volume exceeded 10000 again, ending the downturn in the first half of the year:

Xiaopeng sold 15295 vehicles in June, with a total of 34422 vehicles in the second quarter, slightly exceeding the upper limit of 34000 vehicles given in the first quarter:

After releasing the data, let's talk about two hidden worries, one is valuation cost performance, the other is competition.

In the past month, China's stock market rose sharply against the trend, and electric vehicles became the leader. BYD rose by more than 50%, and Li auto doubled its previous low, taking the lead in setting a record high in Hong Kong stocks!

On the contrary, Tesla has been falling endlessly and has been cut back a little.

One up and one down, the valuation difference between China and the United States has narrowed significantly. At present, Tesla's market sales rate is 11 times, Li auto7.3, xpev13.3, NiO is 6 times, and BYD's absolute value is small, mainly because the business structure also includes slightly lower valuation businesses such as batteries and electronic assembly.

Compared with Tesla, China has two characteristics: first, the domestic growth rate is faster; second, the profitability of domestic brands is low, and most of them are in a state of loss, while Tesla's quarterly net interest rate has been as high as 17%.

With fast growth, it should enjoy higher valuation, but considering the competition and unbearable profitability, the valuation of China's new car building forces may not be close to Tesla.

Think about it carefully. Tesla's quarterly sales volume is more than 200000, and the growth rate is expected to be still 50%, while xpev and Li Auto's quarterly sales volume is only 30000-40000. Although they can maintain a 100% growth rate, the future path is extremely uncertain.

Therefore, the sharply reduced valuation difference may limit nio\xpev\li's future rising space.

In addition, in June, in addition to the gratifying growth rate of nio\xpev\li and BYD, more and more new energy brands began to emerge. For example, the delivery volume of leapmotor in June was 11259 units, and the monthly delivery volume hit a record high. In the first half of the year, the cumulative delivery volume reached 51994 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 265%.

The delivery volume of the two models of horizonauto in June was 13157 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 156%. In the first half of the year, 63131 units were delivered, with a year-on-year growth rate of 199%.

Aion sold 24109 units in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 182%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative sales volume was 100251 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 134%.

The reality visible to the naked eye is that the competition of new energy vehicles is going white hot!

If the players in the industry do not settle down, but actively strive for market share, the fierce competition makes the excess return no longer exist. Although Tesla's 17% quarterly net profit rate is surprising, it is difficult to imagine that Chinese car manufacturers can reach this level in a few years?

At present, xpev focuses on Volkswagen models and should feel the fiercest competition. Li auto has unique selling points and is growing at a high speed, which also brings a great sense of oppression to NiO.

The midfield battle of new energy vehicles has begun. This battle will be very fierce. Who can be proud of the Jianghu? Who will fall behind?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $Li Auto(LI)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $BYD COMPANY(01211)$