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2022-06-10

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CPI Preview: Inflation Still Sizzling, but Will There Be Signs of Relief?

The next big test for the markets arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday as the Bureau of Labor Statistic

CPI Preview: Inflation Still Sizzling, but Will There Be Signs of Relief?

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Traders already got nervous in the previous session, with the Nasdaq plunging nearly 3% and the Dow posting a decline of more than 600 points. &#34;There&#39;s a bit more chatter, call it whisper numbers, for the Consumer Price Index being a little north of expectations,&#34; said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.</p><p><i>Snapshot: </i>The consensus estimate among economists predicts an 8.3% increase for the main CPI number, which would match last month&#39;s figure, but mark a slight slowdown from the record 8.5% seen in March. Market sentiment could get dented if today&#39;s reading comes in higher than 8.3%, but may also get bolstered if it matches expectations or shows slower gains. Wall Street would take that as a sign of a peak in price pressures, with the Fed needing to be less aggressive in its tightening cycle later this year.</p><p>A fare does of pessimism is still out there as soaring energy prices show no sign of abating and price tags continue to be marked up at the supermarket. Last month, the services sector also accounted for about 40% of inflation, which will be harder to reverse and risks becoming more embedded in the U.S. economy. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, could provide some more clarity on that front and is expected to cool further to 5.9% Y/Y in May (from a prior 6.2%).</p><p><b>Commentary:</b> &#34;I said last month that we needed to see headline CPI drop below 8%,&#34; KPMG senior economist Tim Mahedy wrote in a note. &#34;This makes another 50 bps hike in September increasingly likely... and the Fed pushing rates above neutral in the fourth quarter. We&#39;re running out of time, and there are a lot of reasons to think that inflation will ease, but it will be more gradual than the Fed would like.&#34;</p><p>&#34;I think it&#39;s highly highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run,&#34; famed investor Stan Druckenmiller said at 2022 Sohn Investment Conference, adding that a &#34;soft landing&#34; is not likely in the cards.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Preview: Inflation Still Sizzling, but Will There Be Signs of Relief?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Preview: Inflation Still Sizzling, but Will There Be Signs of Relief?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-10 17:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3847569-cpi-preview-inflation-still-sizzling-but-will-there-be-signs-of-relief><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The next big test for the markets arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday as the Bureau of Labor Statistics discloses its latest print on U.S. inflation. Traders already got nervous in the previous session,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3847569-cpi-preview-inflation-still-sizzling-but-will-there-be-signs-of-relief\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3847569-cpi-preview-inflation-still-sizzling-but-will-there-be-signs-of-relief","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2242348742","content_text":"The next big test for the markets arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday as the Bureau of Labor Statistics discloses its latest print on U.S. inflation. Traders already got nervous in the previous session, with the Nasdaq plunging nearly 3% and the Dow posting a decline of more than 600 points. \"There's a bit more chatter, call it whisper numbers, for the Consumer Price Index being a little north of expectations,\" said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.Snapshot: The consensus estimate among economists predicts an 8.3% increase for the main CPI number, which would match last month's figure, but mark a slight slowdown from the record 8.5% seen in March. Market sentiment could get dented if today's reading comes in higher than 8.3%, but may also get bolstered if it matches expectations or shows slower gains. Wall Street would take that as a sign of a peak in price pressures, with the Fed needing to be less aggressive in its tightening cycle later this year.A fare does of pessimism is still out there as soaring energy prices show no sign of abating and price tags continue to be marked up at the supermarket. Last month, the services sector also accounted for about 40% of inflation, which will be harder to reverse and risks becoming more embedded in the U.S. economy. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, could provide some more clarity on that front and is expected to cool further to 5.9% Y/Y in May (from a prior 6.2%).Commentary: \"I said last month that we needed to see headline CPI drop below 8%,\" KPMG senior economist Tim Mahedy wrote in a note. \"This makes another 50 bps hike in September increasingly likely... and the Fed pushing rates above neutral in the fourth quarter. We're running out of time, and there are a lot of reasons to think that inflation will ease, but it will be more gradual than the Fed would like.\"\"I think it's highly highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run,\" famed investor Stan Druckenmiller said at 2022 Sohn Investment Conference, adding that a \"soft landing\" is not likely in the cards.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":102255586,"commentId":"102255586","gmtCreate":1654859115232,"gmtModify":1663251529839,"authorId":3577278649305758,"author":{"id":3577278649305758,"idStr":"3577278649305758","authorId":3577278649305758,"name":"kawa86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb30220b2a555e9c653be64d2421ff9c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9058594595,"objectIdStr":"9058594595","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<u>like</u>","text":"<u>like</u>","html":"<u>like</u>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":102255786,"commentId":"102255786","gmtCreate":1654860451808,"gmtModify":1663251529270,"authorId":3582347714998199,"author":{"id":3582347714998199,"idStr":"3582347714998199","authorId":3582347714998199,"name":"FreePrincess","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5875e48241b7c20bf1855e00a4224eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9058594595,"objectIdStr":"9058594595","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Ok ","text":"Ok ","html":"Ok ","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}