Which Company will be the First to Hit a $5 Trillion Market Cap?

MillionaireTiger
2022-04-19

If the shares soared and reached $4,600 in 2026 as predicted by Ark Invest, the market cap would be $4.65 trillion. 

Which company do you think will be the first to hit the $5 trillion cap?

Time as 4/18/2022

There are four tech giants ahead of Tesla: Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon. Share with us which company you are most bullish on and why!

Let's see ARK's analysis of Tesla.

The bull and bear cases, tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes respectively, are approximately $5,800 and $2,900 per share:

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2022

Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 60% of expected value and more than half of expected EBITDA in 2026. Across the simulation set, ARK expects electric vehicles to constitute 57% of the company’s revenue in 2026, albeit at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue.

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2022

Example Bear and Bull Outcomes

Key Model Inputs

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2022

Forecast of 2026 Share Price

The simulation is highly sensitive to the year in which Tesla launches robotaxis, as shown in the charts below. The upper chart represents the likely distribution of all possible price targets from our Monte Carlo analysis and identifies the bear and bull cases as the 25th and 75th percentile outcomes, respectively. “Expected value” is the average of all 1 million simulations.

Tesla 2026 Price Per Share Scenario

More Assumptions Of Tesla Price Estimates

Insurance

  • Insurance increases the 2026 market capitalization estimate by roughly 2%.

Bitcoin

  • Tesla’s bitcoin holdings are included in the model, along with potential upside or downside swings in price. Though Tesla cannot mark bitcoin up given current accounting standards, ARK assumes that investors will incorporate bitcoin’s impact on enterprise value at its market value in 2026. Bitcoin increases our 2026 expected price per share by less than 5%.

Balance Sheet:

ARK has made conservative assumptions about strategic financial decisions. ARK does not believe these decisions will be the primary drivers of the appreciation in Tesla’s stock price.

  • Aside from bitcoin, Tesla keeps cash on its balance sheet and does not invest in any yield-generating assets.
  • With more cash than debt, Tesla does not use its cash to pay down debt.
  • Tesla will not repurchase shares.
  • The interest rate on Tesla’s debt will remain at 4%.

For more details of ARK's analysis: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/arks-tesla-model/

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Which Company will be the First to Hit a $5 Trillion Market Cap?

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    • StarLuck
      ·2022-04-20
      $Apple(AAPL)$ could be the 1st to reach an eye popping $5 trillion mkt cap. Apple could hit that threshold before the end of the decade, followed in a few year by $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$
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    • zlance
      ·2022-04-21
      $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ w its unlimited data of everyone. there'd be no life without google, gmap, Gmail, its cloud & utube. that's easily 5 tril esp the company earns 100s of billions of advertising rev.
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    • Chilli Padi
      ·2022-04-21
      AMZ will hit 5 trillion shcap in view of growth rate of 70% & mkt cap $1.6 trillion. Its focus on customer & inventions are catalysts for its growth. Analysts are bullish based on its past earnings.
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    • SR050321
      ·2022-04-26
      Tesla PE 100+ while the other 20+ unless Tesla issue new stock to get fund then the market cap wil be doubled/tripled. It should be BRK.A but ppl not willing to get rich slowly, so its Apple my answer
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    • Jasmine1205
      ·2022-04-21
      $Alphabet(GOOG)$ it is more than just a searcu engine
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    • 百汇
      ·2022-04-21
      特斯拉及AAPL有这个潜力及能力达到5万亿美元的市值吧？观察中...[暗中观察]
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    • pekss
      ·2022-04-20
      I believe Apple will be the first one, given its strong fundamentals, robust cash flows, high brand loyalty, market leadership, strong pricing power, supply chain control & great product development
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    • ValuInvestor
      ·2022-04-20
      I would say that Apple probably has the best chance simply because it has closer proximity & generates incredible cashflows. That said,reaching 5T isn’t a small feat and probably takes at least 5yrs
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    • Bonta
      ·2022-04-24
      $Apple(AAPL)$ will have the advantage due to successful creation of closed eco system. Products can sync and build up on each other, creating stickiness and ability to increase margins Effective moAt
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    • LesterTan
      ·2022-04-21
      Google or Amazon
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    • ccy1122
      ·2022-04-21
      [OK] [OK] [OK] [666] [666] [666] [Like] [Like] [Like]
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    • Et1502
      ·2022-04-21
      Unlikely, but good data analysis.
      We can’t even forsee why R-U war can happened & worst still, when it will end.
      Reply
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    • Eng22
      ·2022-04-21
      Tesla.. 25th percentile monte carlo at 2900. Wow that's alr impressive
      Reply
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    • Pluto891
      ·2022-04-20
      Microsoft is my pick.
      it is pervasive in every aspect of daily used s/w and suits.
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    • MoneyCentral
      ·2022-04-20
      Tesla’s advantage is waning and I see Apple has the greatest potential for outperformance. That and it is a lot nearer to close that gap
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    • SG 88
      ·2022-04-20
      $Apple(AAPL)$
      Here's why
      1. leasing Hardware for all product range: the game plan, account for 40% Rev, product sold 20%

      2. Video content Stream 30%

      3. Low costs iPhone 10%😊

      4. Ads &others 10%

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    • Omega88
      ·2022-04-20
      Google! Don't think anyone can replace Google's Chrome, YouTube etc at the moment.
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    • DanZillaXD
      ·2022-04-20
      I believe having your hand in any of these companies will reach the 5T mark anytime soon.
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    • Huiz84
      ·2022-04-25
      Maybe Apple if it can continues with new products since it is already first in market cap
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    • drandy
      ·2022-04-23
      Tesla could be the one to reach that 5 trillion mark if it could successfully execute on its other tech products, apart from its EV, such as Space X.
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