To The Moon

You can trust Airbnb, but the epidemic is still changing. Airbnb's strong performance in the fourth quarter answers you.$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$

If the quarterly results are not enough, the guidance will make you more confident.

Airbnb predicts that in the fiscal quarter ending March 31, accommodation and experience bookings will break through the pre-epidemic level for the first time since the new Crown crisis. If the forecast for the first quarter is met, Airbnb will set a record for accommodation and experience bookings in the fiscal quarter. Airbnb said it expects revenue to reach $1.48 billion in the first quarter, which is higher than the average forecast of $1.22 billion of analysts surveyed by FactSet.

At this time, the question came again, why Airbnb can make good achievements in the face of the epidemic. As a friendly reminder, the process of trying to answer this question may give you the idea of bullish Airbnb.

First of all, we know that the United States is experiencing a once-in-a-decade inflation and various price increases for goods and services. So what is the specific situation of the accommodation industry where Airbnb, the protagonist of this article, is not unexpected, but also rising. The price of accommodation outside of housing has increased by 20.5%,$Hilton(HLT)$,$Hyatt(H)$,$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$And$Marriott(MAR)$Are beneficiaries. As far as Airbnb is concerned,

In the fourth quarter, the average daily house price (ADR) increased by 20% year-on-year, and increased by 36% compared with the same period in 2019 before the epidemic. Benefiting from this, the total order volume (GBV) in the fourth quarter increased by 91% year-on-year to reach 11.3 billion US dollars; GBV for the whole of last year was $47 billion.

After that, did the epidemic really bring about a decrease in orders? After two years of getting along with viruses. Orders recovered well in the fourth quarter:

In terms of order volume, the total number of bookings for accommodation nights and experience activities in Airbnb in the fourth quarter was 73.4 million, although slightly lower than the 75.3 million expected by analysts, it still increased by 59% year-on-year and only decreased by 3% compared with the same period in 2019 before the epidemic. The number of reserved room nights in the whole year was 300.6 million, up 56% year-on-year and 8% less than that in 2019 before the epidemic.

The reason why the order volume is so good is to talk about people's response to the epidemic. We don't need to go to work in the company to travel to work!

Since the outbreak, telecommuting has become the norm, and many people will stay in different towns for weeks, months or even the whole quarter, thus prolonging their stay in homestays. Nearly half of the booking nights in Airbnb in the fourth quarter came from orders with a stay of more than 7 days, 20% were long-term stays with a stay of more than 28 days, and 175,000 orders had a stay period of more than 3 months. Night bookings in non-urban areas increased by 45% compared with the same period in 2019.

Understand these updates about the company's performance and logic, and now summarize the highlights of this financial report for Tiger Friends,

Top Line Posted High-30% Gain vs. Pre-Pandemic Period for Second Consecutive Quarter on Pent-Up Leisure Demand

Gross Bookings Top Consensus, Despite Softer Room-Night Trends, Amid Mix Shift to Higher ADR Regions, High Non-Urban Rentals Demand

Average Daily Rates Gain 20% in 4Q Amid Elevated North America Booking Mix, Sectorwide Price Appreciation

Ebitda Margin Shows Near 50 Percentage-Point Swing to 22% in 4Q vs. 4Q19 on Fixed-Cost Discipline, Marketing Leverage

And future trend forecast:

Airbnb's guidance for 66% sales growth in 1Q is 25 percentage points above consensus, reflecting its ability to capture a higher share of pent-up leisure demand thanks to its inventory breadth and the speed of product innovation. Long-duration stays may remain its highest-growth category, about 22% of room nights booked in 4Q, as Airbnb benefits from a shift to hybrid work that should stick longer-term. Urban and cross-border trips are showing signs of life as omicron fades in Airbnb's core geographies, which could be a boon to room nights booked through 2022.$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$