To The Moon

 $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ shares fell after the company delivered a lower-than-expected revenue forecast for the current quarter, but its chief executive expressed confidence in the performance and value of artificial-intelligence-driven lending. 

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ shares close to their 52-week low. It is finding support at its IPO price after falling over 94% in the last ten months.

Seems the weakest stock during the bear cycle stopped going down a few weeks ago and are carving short-term bottoms??

Let's take a look at Q2 Earnings Data:

For the second quarter of 2022, revenues came in as management previously guided to with its warning at $228 million. This was 18% growth over the prior year period, ending a four-quarter streak of more than 150% growth. Q2 2021 was the peak in revenue growth at more than 1,000%.

With revenues suddenly falling short of expectations, management was unable to cut expenses in a timely manner. Thus, the company swung from a profit of nearly $37.3 million in the year ago period to an almost $29.9 million loss in the June 2022 period.

As the graphic below shows, bank partner origination volume fell sequentially in Q2 by more than a billion dollars, almost erasing the prior two quarters of meaningful growth.

Bank Partner Origination Volume (Company Filings)

Upstart Short Interest (NASDAQ)

In early July, this is a heavily shorted stock, with more than 24.7 million of the company’s roughly 85 million shares outstanding being short.  

While there were hopes for a revenue rebound in Q3, management guided to a dramatic drop to just $170 million, more than $76 million below analyst estimates. The stock is already more than 90% off its 52-week high, but more losses wouldn’t be surprising until this business can get on some solid footing.

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ Lowered to $15 at Morgan Stanley.