To The Moon

As the leader of COVID-19 stocks, $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ seems gradually fades out of focus after the "normalization" of the pandemic. However, the 22Q2 quarterly report was announced on August 3 makes it surge nearly 17%,

In terms of performance, revenue and profit both beat, and optimistic guidelines enhanced investor confidence.

• On the revenue side, the overall revenue was 4.75 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9.07%, higher than the expected 4.02 billion US dollars;
• Among them, the income from COVID-19 was 4.53 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 7.96%, higher than the expected 3.82 billion US dollars;
• In terms of profit, the operating profit was 2.20 billion US dollars,-2.12% year-on-year, higher than the expected 1.90 billion US dollars;
• EPS was $5.24, higher than expected at $4.54.

Moderna’s APAs for product sales for which we expect to make delivery in 2022 are approximately $21 billion. This includes the recently announced agreement with the U.S. government for 70 million doses (option for 4 million pediatric doses has been exercised) and an adjustment for doses that remain unallocated by COVAX due to lack of demand. Moderna anticipates that for sales in the second half, sales will be greater in the fourth quarter than the third quarter, driven by the timing for approval of our updated COVID-19 vaccines and the related manufacturing ramp-up of new products.

On the whole, the company expects that there will still be strong revenue in 2022, and it is more confident to update a wave of repurchases of $3 billion.

We think there are several main reasons for the surge

First, it was previously thought that the early unblocking of the pandemic by major countries such as the United States would greatly affect the business of these vaccine companies. But in fact, from the sales situation, it is still beyond market expectations. That is to say,The market oversold its "insufficient demand", Now it's back ;

Secondly, Moderna is specially designed for MRNA therapy, which is relatively advanced.In addition to COVID-19, mRNA also has good effects in treating other diseases, all of which are big blue oceans. For example, the combination vaccine of influenza + COVID-19 mRNA vaccine will become a new final solution, and whoever can seize this market will become a big winner.

At present, a total of one mRNA vaccine (Spikevax) has been approved for marketing on Moderna R&D pipeline, 33 are undergoing Phase 1/2/3 clinical trials, and 26 drugs are in preclinical stage. Among them, the infection field is the most prominent, and COVID-19 drugs are the most eye-catching. The main research fields are COVID-19 vaccine, influenza vaccine, preventive vaccine, systemic secretion and cell surface therapy; Exploratory fields include tumor vaccine, local regenerative therapy, cell therapy and so on.

Attention:

Company to Q2's deferred revenue was $4.09 billion, and the market estimate is $5.71 billion. But the range of market expectations has changed greatly. Take it horizontally, it has also dropped by nearly half from 7.3 billion US dollars last year and decreased from 5.6 billion US dollars in Q1. The decrease in deferred revenue can be the recognition of certain prepaid orders or the cancellation of certain orders. If this value continues to decline, it will affect the revenue recognition in the next few quarters.