To The Moon

This week's highlights: Wednesday: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ releases earnings Wednesday: FOMC meeting Thursday: $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ releases earnings Thursday: Q2 GDP Friday: $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ releases earnings This week we have big earnings, FOMC and GDP. The last time we had such a big battle was at the end of April. : GDP Is so Bad, When Will the Market Improve? When the elephant stops dancing, be careful! There are plenty of parallels between this week and the end of April: poor earnings forecasts for advertising companies, poor GDP forecasts and a big rate hike at the FOMC meeting. It's exactly the same. But because of lower oil prices and unclogged supply chains, markets see sharp rate increases as a one-off in terms of inflation expectations. Ideally, the market should continue to rally after the data hits, regardless of the week's turbulence. But before we can reach our vision for next week, we need to get over this week's heavy emotional mountain: Last week's 39% drop in Earnings was a strong warning. This earnings season analysts have given very loose expectations, such a loose premise can not meet expectations, and the inability to give clear guidance for the next quarter, is bound to lead to the market again sharply lowered valuation expectations, triggering a broad market decline, led by growth stocks. In terms of rate hikes, although the rate tools suggest a 77% chance of a 75bps hike. But some analysts see the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 100 basis points to curb inflation. Negative growth stocks. In terms of GDP, two consecutive quarters of negative growth, although the market expects Q2 positive growth, but how to think the probability is not too big, may be another negative growth explosion. To sum up, the above three constitute growth stocks callback pressure. When will the stock market stop falling? I do have a very simple indicator here, so simple that it makes my list of words seem very verbose... Watch $GameStop(GME)$ Growth stocks have always been a bellwether for market money, but the bellwethers vary from cycle to cycle. As mentioned earlier in Turning Points, this year's bellwether is GME. If THE GME rises, growth stocks rise. Leading indicators are also part of this pullback, and the GME was the only one to fall during Thursday's rally. Suggest GME later do not call retail first share, rename the first institutional share. Don't guess today growth stocks can go up, when the GME callback in place when growth stocks can continue to buy. Tech heavyweights like Apple, Tesla, And Netflix I don't think that's a big problem, especially if the stocks that have already reported can do a sell put this week $NFLX 20220805 200.0 PUT$ $TSLA 20220729 700.0 PUT$ $AAPL 20220729 145.0 PUT$ As for Microsoft, Google and META, I don't see a particularly effective price reference movement at the moment. I personally think as long as the three companies meet analysts' expectations for the quarter and give decent guidance for the next quarter, the results won't trigger a big drop in stock prices and that will be a factor in this week's reversal.