To The Moon

The Federal Reserve will hold their September FOMC meeting on Sept 20-21, and the resultsof the hike will be revealed on Wednesday. 

CME FedWatch Tool

Currently, traders now expect a probability of 80% that the hike will be 75 basis points, while a 20% chance that the hike will be 100 basispoints. If the big hike is implemented, unfortunately the market has a lot more to fall. This will likely hurt companies earnings much more, and also continue to drive the dollar index higher. 

The charts showed some hope

As of last Friday's trading session, the S&P 500 showed some hope of a red bullish reversal candle, in which the close was much higher above it's low. The Nasdaq index made a green ice cream bullish candle too.

Looking at the S&P 500 30minute chart, 3,840 level was well defended, each time the market hit that level, it managed to gain and form a green candle subsequently. Eventually, the S&P 500 only shed 0.72%.

S&P 500 daily 

S&P 500 30 minute 

Nasdaq daily

For investors who can only buy and hold, I think it's much safer to wait for the outcome of the Fed meeting on Wednesday before adding to existing long positions. The volatility should continue for the next few days until the outcome and also if September is finally the "last big hike", and will the Fed finally realise that perhaps their soft landing might just turn out to be a crash landing for the economy. 

Lastly, as inflation is largely driven by the posteffects of the pandemic and the subsequent Russia-Ukraine war, unfortunately unless the war is over, the market bearish sentiment will still continue. But there are some signs that there might eventually be light at the end of the tunnel.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

@TigerStars