$Amazon.com(AMZN)$
Amazon (AMZN) - still bearish outlook.
There are two distinct aspects facing Amazon's Q4 guidance that I contend the market isn't paying attention to.
Amazon's International business will wither. As consumers struggle with heating their homes and high food prices, discretionary items will be cut back to the bone.
Secondly, what nobody is focusing on is that Amazon as a global enterprise is going to get hit hard by currency changes.
Currency hasn't been a headwind for tech companies generally. But now we are entering a new period. For investors, this isn't a problem, until it's a problem.
Investors shouldn't price anchor to the past. Instead, we should look ahead to what's coming in Amazon's Q4 guidance
Battle of Bearish & Bullish Sentiment - Buy The Disagreement?
@Tiger_comments：$S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ finally closed up 0.69% and 0.76% yesterday after a week of plunge of 4.8% and 5.5% last week. Unlike the previous unanimous pessimism, after a long period of decline, some investors also saw hope in yesterday's rally. The market is currently inconsistent about the direction of the stock market after the Fed resolution. Let's take a look at the pessimistic vs. optimistic sentiment among analysts. 1. The market may make another record low? Some technical analysts say it seems increasingly likely that the S&P 500 will retest, and perhaps even break, the June lows when $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell to 3,630. In addition to "oversold", sometimes the stock market also appears super-oversold, which is a prelude to further declines. This happened before the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crash, Black Monday in 1987 and the 1973-1974 bear market sell-off. a. Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, said 3900 is an important support level, which records the highest trading volume in the past three years. But $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed under 3,900 on Friday, opening the door for a further decline. Some of the biggest companies in the market remain vulnerable. Weakness in the large tech stocks such as $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ may be a significant factor in the continued decline of the stock market. b. Analyst Newton wrote, Given last week's decline, the possibility of a 1-2 day rally is possible. But I don't expect much of a rally until the S&P 500 hits support level around 3,700 in October. 2. The odds are with the rally? In contrast to the pessimism, some analysts believe that the stock market is now over-sold and will start to rally after the Fed's resolution of 75bps. a: Sundial Capital Research analyst Jason Goepfert noted Last Tuesday, less than 1% of the components of the S&P 500 closed higher, a situation that has occurred only 28 times since 1940. Over the next 12 months, the index has risen an average of 15.6% and has been higher 79% of the time during that period. b: Marko Kolanovic, chief market strategist at JPMorgan, believes that despite the Fed's toughness, the decline will not be too great this year. While we recognize that the Fed's more hawkish policy and the resulting rise in real yields are putting pressure on equities, we also believe that any declines from here are likely to be limited. He believed that strong earnings, lower investor positions and stable long-term inflation expectations should cushion any declines in equities. Do you think it's an opportunity to buy the disagreement? Do you have any plan for this uncertain market? Share your thoughts in the comment section and win the tiger coins~
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