To The Moon

Almost all central banks in the world are facing a dilemma. Some countries with large economies are also on the verge of collapse. I think the centerpiece of this storm may be the sovereign debt crisis, which is not at the same level as the previous Lehman Brothers collapse. CDS are soaring because investors are buying insurance against the uncertainty of default.

However, on the other hand, the world's major central banks are trying to deal with the inflation crisis by raising interest rates, and to put it mildly, I think they are actually digging a hole for themselves, but it is a hole they designed in the past. In the current situation of increasing interest rates, their debts will become more difficult to repay! And speaking of tapering, the world's major central banks are now trying to normalize their previously huge balance sheets! They have previously promised that the trillions of dollars of quantitative easing implemented in the 21st century is only temporary and that they will sell these assets in the future. However, every time they try to do QT, they have a reason to change their minds. Let me give you an example. It's not easy for someone who has been a drug addict for a long time to suddenly get clean and sober, is it?

A while ago, the Bank of England had to intervene and start easing again. Then, Japan and Europe are struggling to raise interest rates in response to inflation, but they have huge debts. These countries are hungry for dollars and they desperately need to pay off their debts! All of these events are happening right at a time when the dollar is strong. As the dollar continues to strengthen, the world's dollar-denominated debt is becoming increasingly difficult to service.

That's why some sovereign countries and the United Nations are begging the Fed to stop raising interest rates! We've been talking about Credit Suisse for a while now. The Fed made an interesting move not long ago, providing $9 billion in liquidity to the Swiss National Bank through a swap line. That's probably how the Fed bailed out Credit Suisse. I think the interesting thing is that almost some countries are getting a secret supply of dollars while others that really need it are not, and I think a geopolitical conflict could break out in the future as a result.

The Fed has the hegemony of the dollar and it can decide which countries it wants to support with the dollar. I think the Fed can avoid systemic risk until systemic collapse by using the dollar swap amount to patch the holes in the financial system, but how long can this last? I think the Fed will eventually be forced to turn, and the result will be one of two things: 1.) Keep raising rates = recession, 2.) Pivot too soon = high inflation. Either way, I think eventually the overall stock market and asset prices will slide downward.

@MillionaireTiger @TigerStars @CaptainTiger