To The Moon

FOMC decision day

Here we are again on FOMC's decision day. i just like to call the Feds FOMC. Haha. It is time for Mr Powell and his merry band to tell us what he has decided for the Feds fund rate. Many are expecting a 50 basis point hike. Thereis still a small percentage thinking he might gobig with 75. But after yesterday's good numbers on the inflation side, I believe 50 looks like the most likely choice.

The markets have priced in a 50 points hike and more. They are in fact clamouring for the Fed to pivot or at least indicate a pause. So anything other than the Feds saying when they are pausing or even indicating when they mightcut rates again might see a market washout. 

Its hard to guess which way the market might go because sometimes the market is just weird that way. They just like to go their own way despite data saying something else. 

I prefer to look at the charts. They are now indicating caution after yesterday's burst after an initial gap up. There are just too much expectations I do not know if the bulls can take thepressure. 

I believe the Feds will maintain their hawkish stance. Inflation at 7% is still way off the target 2%. They need to push rates closer to inflation and I believe that is what they intend to do. The faster inflation comes down, the faster they can stop the rate hikes. But for now, they need to complete the task they set out to do. 

So that will deflate the market. It will not derail it though (I hope!). The market needs this retreat so that a healthy structure is in place for the next wave, a wave that I believe will conquer the 200 daily average and downtrend line. Otherwise the market will be at risk of a bigger breakdown down the road indicating the Feds are not really efficient. 

A retreat from here does not mean the Fed is not effective. To the contrary actually. It shows that the medicine is working its way into thesystem. That is what I feel.

Thanks for reading!