To The Moon

• This article was originally posted in Laohu8 Community on December 26, 2022
• https://www.laohu8.com/post/621329228

Hi guys, I'm Stone, I'd like to talk about $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 

I believe everyone has seen the stock price of Tesla. Under the Adjusted cicumstances, the stock price dropped from $414.5 in November 2021 to 123.15 on December 23, 2022, the stock price of Tesla fell by more than 60%. Meanwhile, In the recent trend of stock price, there was an accelerated decline.

Tesla's market value is now below $400 billion. At its peak, Tesla's market value exceeded $1 trillion, which is more than the market value of the world's 12 largest automakers combined! At that time, Tesla was praised as the car of the future with infinite highlights. Most of people claimed that Tesla was not a manufacturer of cars, but a future technology company.

However, In just one year, the winds have been changed. As Tesla's stock price continues to fall, Musk fell from the top of the rich list in the world, his support is shrinking as fast as the naked eye can see. More and more people are criticizing Musk for “an excessive attention to plaything saps the will”, because he sold his shares of Tesla due to his acquisition of Twitter.

If you've been following Tesla's financial report or the news in the markets, you've noticed that starting in Q3 2022, Tesla's production exceeded deliveries; producing 365,000 vehicles and delivering 343,000. Tesla explained the reason as "logistics problem," which the market interpreted as "overcapacity."

In addition, by looking at Musk's shareholding changes, we can indeed see that in 2022, there were several quarters of stock reduction action:

The shareholding ratio also dropped from 17.19% in Q1 2022 to 13.42% in Q4 2022, and the number of holdings from 533 million to 424 million, a reduction of 109 million shares, or about 20%.

If you look at Musk's position history further back, you'll see that Musk has been adding to his Tesla position since those early days, and buying quite a bit of it.

in Q4 2013, Musk had a stake of 424 million, or 23.29 percent, but in Q4 2022, the same stake would only account for 13.42 percent. That's because of Tesla's stock split.

After looking at Musk's stock holdings, the proportion of Tesla shares is getting lower and lower, which can indirectly indicate that Tesla shares have been diluted for several times, Musk's proportion in Tesla is getting lower and lower, plus the overall market is declining. When Musk sold Tesla shares due to the acquisition of Twitter, This makes the market's confidence in Tesla gradually deteriorate.

Judging from the more than a decade of Tesla's development, many things have failed to materialize as the company previously announced, and the advertised 2022 self-driving L5 seems to have been skipped. And it's hard for me to imagine autonomous driving, battery bottlenecks, etc. within 1-2 years.

When the market gradually lost confidence in Tesla, a variety of negative news of Tesla began to come out, such as price reduction, layoffs, false publicity, insufficient sales, factory shutdown... It seems to be all set up, right? What a coincidence!

If you think about it, some of these problems were already there, not just this year. Among Tesla's three 2022 financial reports:

• The revenue was, Q1:18.756 billion; Q2: 16.934 billion; Q3: 21.454 billion;
• The net profit was, Q1: 3.313 billion; Q2: 2.256 billion; Q3: 3.292 billion

It took me a few days to read all of Tesla's financial reports this year, and it's hard for me to understand that Tesla can reach a trillion dollar market cap, but what about a $388.8 billion market cap? I'm trying to cut off the noise from the market, put aside Musk's influence on the company, Just looking at Tesla as a company worth buying stock in or not.

Okay, If we consider Tesla as an automobile manufacturer, the current price of Tesla is still high in terms of the overall market value, PE and PB of automobile manufacturers in the current market. Although his stock price has fallen more than 60%.

Then, if Tesla is regarded as an energy company, in the company's financial report, the business of energy accounts for 5.18% of the parent company, and the other 94.82% are all electric vehicles.

So, if you think of Tesla as a technology company, or any other life-changing company, it's sensible to note that energy extraction, space exploration, flying to Mars, brain interfacing, etc., are all about Musk, but sadly not Tesla.

To sum up, I personally believe that the current stock price of Tesla is rather awkward, with certain room for both upside and downside. Looking at the current market news, the concentration of negative news is too coincidental, and there is no trend of negative news abating.

Overall, Tesla's stock price decline is impressive, but there is still room to go down. Buying Tesla shares at this point is a bet on the future,It is not rational. Personally, I am very concerned about the trend of Tesla's stock price. You know, most of the automobile manufacturing industries in history have experienced embarrassing scenes. They always gradually lose their advantages due to constant competition.

At present, the electric vehicle industry is blooming everywhere, and many manufacturers are burning money to fight for the race track. In a few years, some manufacturers will disappear in the electric vehicle industry, but Tesla will still exist. I believe Tesla is a company with a moat and real value, but how much are you willing to pay for this value?

Where there is value, there must be a floor price. But at this price, I don't think we have reached the bottom price.

Investment, especially stock investment risk is very big, 2020 Tesla into God, 2022 fall from the altar? We don't have to go overboard, and we don't have to invest in belief. Making money in the market is our main focus.

With the current market, I personally think cash is king. I would consider buying Tesla shares if there was a chance the stock price of Tesla would move into double digits. Otherwise I wouldn't have stepped in and bought Tesla stock.

You may miss out on a sudden jump in stock prices, but at least you won't lose money.