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Yahoo long weekend! Come like like comment comment tqtq kamsahamida arigato

Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%

He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent abou

Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%

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Shan_shine
·2022-09-15
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Come like like comment comment tqtq kamsahamida arigato&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Yahoo long weekend! Come like like comment comment tqtq kamsahamida arigato&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"Yahoo long weekend! Come like like comment comment tqtq kamsahamida arigato","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934139393","repostId":1119688207,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119688207","pubTimestamp":1663198743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119688207?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119688207","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent abou","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come down</li><li>Notes investors may be complacent about long-term inflation</li></ul><p>Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.</p><p>“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.</p><p>The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.</p><p>Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.</p><p>Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.</p><p>A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c4808d274be46162db2efadd720342\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. 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