To The Moon

WEEK SUMMARY

• The 11 S&P 500 sectors increased on Friday while the main indices ended their recent sequences of weekly defeats.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ increased by 1.6 %, 1.9 % in weekly, breaking a three -week skid. The lowest sector in the S&P 500 of the day was basic consumption, which increased less than 0.2 %.

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ increased by almost 2% to advance by 2.6% over the week.

$DJIA(.DJI)$ increased by 1.2%, and 1.8% over the week. The latter ended a sequence of four consecutive defeats.

• This recovery would have already announced the day before ...

Indeed, after a half-day overthrow, the main clues closed in solid increase on Thursday, delivering their best gains in more than two weeks. The turnaround intervened after the president of the Fed of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, has pushed the need for an increase in the rate of half a point at the next Fed meeting on March 21 and 22. "I am always very firmly in the rhythm of movement of a quarter of a point," Bostic told journalists.

Another element, which could also have added to reversal, would be the income of $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ ...

Jumped 11.5 % over Thursday

In the field of technology, Salesforce’s solid income may suggest that technology problems could be somewhat exaggerated. Cloud pioneer shares jumped 11.5 % over Thursday, also helped by the company's commitment to buy for $ 20 billion in shares. Part of the excitement also came in the wake of the CEOs of CEO Marc Benioff who stressed that the company adopted a new, more disciplined approach to its activities.

On the side of economic data, we had:

• ISM

The February purchase directors index was 47.7, slightly increased compared to 47.4 in the previous month and very slightly below the average forecast of economists of 47.8. It was the fourth consecutive reading below 50, which indicates a contraction of the activity.

• PMI

What is not contracted are the costs of manufacturers. The PMI paid price component jumped at 51.3, compared to 44.5 in January.

The new economic data and the profits continue to present a globally confused image ...

Bond yields continued to climb until Friday ...

The Treasury Bon at 2 years old was 4.90 %, a 52 -week summit. The 10 years established 4.07%, its highest level since November ... before falling under 4% Friday ...

These yields climbed while investors and traders anticipated a higher peak in the rate of federal funds in 2023 and the probabilities of lower decrease in the second half of the year.

MARKET SCENARIO

• Economists, the market, the Fed, consumers and businesses would still find it difficult to determine the prospects of the American economy ...

At that time last year, many calls were launched so that a recession has already occurred. Instead, the economy seems to be reactive, potentially aggravating inflationary pressures ...

Investors would fear more and more that still hot economic data obliges the Fed to return to greater increases. In recent weeks, the long-term market has evaluated at 30% the probability of an increase of half a point later this month, which no one thought possible just a month ago ...

• Bostic's comments could appease some of these concerns. Note that BOSIC does not currently have a vote during meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, so its current opinion is purely advisory ...

However, investors have once again chosen to take its comments as a sign that the Fed remained attached to a gradual rate of increases before the rates culminated later this year, almost 5.5 %, up compared to The current range of 4.50 % to 4.75 %.

• February flop. After an excellent month of opening of the year, February allowed investors to confront reality. Inflation has not disappeared ... The federal reserve would not have finished increasing its rates .... and no one would think of the economy ...

AGENDA

For all the reasons above, the main event next week is the semi-annual hearing of Jerome Powell, before the banking committee of the US Senate on Tuesday. And in front of the House of Representatives the next day.

The other major event of the week concerns the American labor market, with the ADP/investigation quartet JOLTS on Wednesday, then Challenger survey on Thursday and finally February employment data on Friday.

In Europe, Christine Lagarde must take place on Wednesday during an event in Geneva. In Asia, the Bank of Japan will render a monetary policy decision Thursday evening, the last of the Kuroda era. Meanwhile, in China, the authorities should set growth targets on Monday for 2023.

SP500 SELECTED LEVELS

• Regarding the levels given the last week, they have perfectly played their role ...Last week

Please find the update below

• Key levels 4040

• Upper zone: 4065-4100 with 4200 in major resistance

• Lower zone: 3975-3950 with 3900 in major support

SPX Areas

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