To The Moon

What Tesla Left Out of Investor Day: Hardware 4.0, Model 2, Cybertruck — and the New Insights That Were Shared

Investors and enthusiasts expected Tesla to spend more time discussing new products that are set to imminently launch at the Investor Day event; instead, the company focused on a much broader long-term outlook.

Investor Day 2023 Format

Nonetheless, Tesla did indirectly reveal insights into the topics that investors were expecting related to Full Self-Driving, Model 2, and Cybertruck.

We found the presentation by the entire Tesla team to be compelling and insightful overall, painting an idyllic picture for the future of the company.

Investors tend to disagree, although any volatility with Tesla’s stock should be short-term: Tesla could theoretically become the world’s most valuable company if they accomplish all of the goals set forth during Investor Day.

Analysts are continuing to maintain a positive outlook, and Tesla’s most enthusiastic fans know that the company will release information as it’s available at the most opportune time for headline-grabbing products.

Frankly, the Investor Day event was already a four-hour affair jam-packed with information: Tesla would be doing itself a disservice by making too many announcements at once, particularly related to the most important products.

Here’s what was speculated and expected to be unveiled at Investor Day, and the new details that were released:

Full Self-Driving Hardware 4.0

Tesla has developed next-generation Full Self-Driving hardware, which was subject to a recent teardown but not formally announced or mentioned at the event.

Full Self-Driving Hardware 4.0 should have roughly double the processing power of the current-generation Hardware 3.0/Full Self-Driving Computer, along with upgraded, supplementary 5-megapixel camera sensors and a four-dimensional Tesla-designed radar module.

What we do now know is that the Full Self-Driving Beta is operating at a rate that’s roughly six times safer than a human on current-generation Hardware 3.0: one collision was recorded every 3.2 million miles, as opposed to the industry average of one collision every 500,000 miles for manual driving.

Considering that Elon Musk has said that Hardware 3.0 could be 2–3x safer than a human then Hardware 4.0 would theoretically be 5–6x safer, it’s safe to assume the current hardware is already accomplishing the latter feat.

There is still potential for Hardware 4.0 to be at least twice as reliable, although we do know that Elon Musk reiteratively expects to launch Full Self-Driving essentially overnight at some point on current hardware.

This remains a critical goal considering that as many as 25% of Tesla’s customers in North America have already purchased Full Self-Driving.

Full Self-Driving’s main powerhouse is the artificial intelligence network that Tesla is designing, so much of the processing is offloaded to incredibly sophisticated neural networks regardless.

It’s expected that Tesla is currently in the process of building new Model S and Model X vehicles, and even Model Y in certain markets, with Full Self-Driving Hardware 4.0; however, it wasn’t officially confirmed at the event.

Model 2

On one hand Tesla did devote a large portion of its presentation to a next-generation vehicle platform that could power a prospective ‘Model 2.’

On the other hand, no specific details about the vehicle were released or mentioned at the event.

More importantly, Tesla did discuss how they would ultimately achieve a targeted 50% cost reduction in order to eventually build a Tesla with a $25,000 starting price.

Elon Musk expects the vehicle to sell like crazy, as Tesla’s demand is basically the equivalent of ‘infinite’.

Tesla did back this up with a future vehicle lineup that adds two new vehicles: one is expected to be a van that will sell three-hundred million units, and the other is expected to be the ‘Model 2’ mass-volume hatchback which Tesla expects to sell 700 million units.

This will be achieved by future production volume ambitions of twenty-million total vehicles per year.

Much of the production will be automated, and feature all of Tesla’s latest innovations likely before they even reach the rest of Tesla’s lineup.

This includes a new powertrain design using no rare earth metals, incredibly innovative parallel assembly where each piece is produced individually then assembled together at the end, as many Tesla-designed parts as possible, and the greatest efficiency of any Tesla released to date.

Robotaxi was confirmed to be built on the same platform.

There will be a formal unveiling event for the new vehicle later this year, although no official model designation or specifications are known yet.

Cybertruck

Many of Cybertruck’s most outspoken deposit holders were hoping for launch information to headline the event; similarly, Tesla provided details on Cybertruck that fit into the long-term scope of the company.

One of the most striking details: Tesla expects to build and sell at least three-hundred million Cybertrucks.

This implies that one day Tesla will release a more affordable base model.

Tesla’s chief designer Franz did spend a considerable amount of time discussing the design of Cybertruck, which took an entirely unique form-follows-function approach: the steel exoskeleton determined the rest of the design.

The bending process for the steel used on Cybertruck is incredibly linear, and the radically-new design will “change the road landscape” — particularly once it becomes shockingly commonplace with volume.

Tesla has rethought its factory assembly lines and tooling with Cybertruck, leading to a markedly smaller production footprint.

Cybertruck nonetheless has all of the expected utility and functionality of a pickup truck despite streamlined production, if not greater capability.

The platform will contain a preview of some of Tesla’s next-generation advancements, including a Tesla-designed controller and an improved low-voltage architecture.

Speculatively, the van that Tesla placed next to Cybertruck under wraps could share a similar design language and be built off of the same platform.

Cybertruck is ultimately on the way to production “this year.” The most recent launch window we’ve heard is summer, which could possibly be delayed as Tesla puts finishing touches on the futuristic pickup truck.

What to Expect

Full Self-Driving Hardware 4.0 should be outlined in a post on Tesla’s site as vehicles begin rolling off of the assembly line to customers as a standard feature replacing Hardware 3.0.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s first vehicle built on the next-generation platform is set to have an unveiling event later this year that could be held at the new Gigafactory in Mexico.

Cybertruck is still on-track to be launched this year, and launch configurations/specifications/pricing should be released over the summer.

While investors and enthusiasts didn’t get the specific information they were hoping for at the event, what Tesla presented about its future was more valuable in our opinion — and included new insights into the most highly-anticipated products.

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