To The Moon

Worldwide Production Ramp

Tesla investors are hoping for more in Q1 2023 thanks to the ramp-up in Berlin and Texas, especially the former, where the automaker recently achieved a production rate of 5,000 Model Y vehicles per week.

In the US, Tesla’s massive price drops have resulted in “unprecedented demand,” as we previously reported. The automaker ran out of new production build slots for the Model Y, its most popular model now, halfway into the quarter.

China, Tesla’s second biggest market, is also looking good this quarter.

The latest registration data shows that Tesla already beat its record for deliveries in the country with 126,000 deliveries with still a week left in the quarter.

Tesla’s total deliveries in the quarter in China should be around 140,000 vehicles.

In Norway, Tesla is also on pace for a record month of March in Norway with already 7,000 deliveries; it will likely end the month with around 10,000 vehicles delivered in the quarter, which is massively impressive for a small country.

Production Expectations And Sentiments

The Wall Street consensus for Tesla deliveries worldwide in Q1 2023 is 420,000 vehicles, up about 15,000 units from the previous quarter and up over 100,000 units year-over-year.

Anything over 420,000 units would be very good for Tesla. Without any growth, it would be around 1.7 million units this year, but obviously, we expect some growth, especially in the second half of the year.

As Musk said, 1.8 million units look very achievable, and two million if everything goes perfectly, which it virtually never does.

Anything over 420,000 units this quarter would have the higher end of that delivery window still in play.

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