To The Moon

Here are Monday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:

BMO upgrading SL Green to outperform from market perform

BMO said the real estate investment trust is “oversold.”

“SLG is the third most-shorted US REIT (17.5% of float) as concerns intensify over office demand and bank exposure to commercial real estate - coupled with SLG’s high leverage and declining earnings.”

UBS reiterates Apple as buy

UBS said data shows iPhone growth is turning positive and comps are easing for Apple.

“On a global basis, we estimate iPhone sell-through in February was down ~3% (18.1M) vs down 11% in January (20.9M) and ~18% in Dec-22 (22.6M).”

Morgan Stanley initiates Sunnova as overweight

Morgan Stanley said it sees a 124% upside for the solar company.

“Sunnova (NOVA) is the third largest residential rooftop solar installer in the US, holding 8.5% of annual installations in 2022, behind RUN at 17% and SPWR at 9.5%.”

Morgan Stanley downgrades First Solar to underweight from equal weight

Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock mainly on valuation.

“As a domestic, fully integrated solar panel manufacturer, FSLR is one of the biggest direct beneficiaries of the IRA, which we estimate is worth ~$83/shr for the company.”

Bank of America adds Lowe’s to the US 1 list

Bank of America added the home improvement giant to its top ideas list.

“We are adding Lowe’s Cos Inc. (LOW). We are renewing Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI) following 52 weeks on the list. We remove Wex Inc. (WEX).”

Bank of America names Netflix a top second-quarter pick

Bank of America said it’s bullish on the streaming giant as the second quarter begins.

“Supported by its world class brand, leading global subscriber base (>230mn ) and position as a leading innovator, we believe Netflix is poised to outperform driven by four main drivers: (1) a crackdown on password sharing, (2) the introduction of a value-oriented, ad-supported tier which expands TAM and monetization.”

JPMorgan upgrades Macy’s to overweight from equal weight

JPMorgan said it sees a favorable risk/reward outlook for Macy’s.

“The key takeaway from our meetings was clear confidence in FY23′s top/ bottom-line plan and multi-year low-double-digit EBITDA margin profile with 5 ‘self-help’ growth vectors (private label, off-mall store expansion, digital marketplace, luxury brands, personalization) driving a return to low-single digit top-line growth and incremental EBITDA margin expansion YOY in FY24.”

Credit Suisse downgrades LPL Financial to neutral from outperform

Credit Suisse said it sees reduced upside for the financial stock.

“Downgrade LPLA to Neutral (from Outperform) – And reduce our SOTP-derived target price to $205 (from $245). Downgrade thesis centers on reduced upside post adjusted EPS reductions.”

Goldman Sachs reiterates Tesla as buy

Goldman said it’s standing by its buy rating after Tesla reported its delivery numbers over the weekend.

“Tesla reported preliminary 1Q23 vehicle deliveries of about 423k (up 4% qoq and up 36% yoy), and production of about 441k vehicles.”

Stephens upgrades US Bancorp to overweight from equal weight

Stephens said in its upgrade of the bank that it see an attractive risk/reward.

“We are upgrading USB from EW to OW with a price target of $47 (from $52). In light of the
concerns across the industry around funding and building risk of an economic slowdown, we see USB’s risk/reward as attractive following the ~24% sell-off since March 1st.”

Morgan Stanley downgrades Marqeta to equal weight from overweight

Morgan Stanley said in its downgrade of the card payment and solutions company that it sees too many negative catalysts.

“MQ is working through a multitude of headwinds over the next ~12 months, including SQ contract renewal, non-SQ stagnation, gross profit growth uncertainty, and path to profitability.”

Goldman Sachs upgrades Vulcan Materials and Martin Marietta to buy from neutral

Goldman upgraded several construction materials companies on Monday and said the risk/reward is too attractive to ignore.

“we see attractive risk-reward for Vulcan Materials and Martin Marietta Materials (upgrading both names to Buy) on mid-cycle and P/B basis. We note this call could be early as our estimates are still 10% below consensus near-term, but with valuation, volumes, and price/cost closer to trough than mid-cycle we see attractive risk-reward.

Mizuho reiterates Coinbase as underperform

Mizuho said it sees a lack of growth for Coinbase and is concerned about crypto contagion from the regional banks fallout.

“In the wake of the bank failures at Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), Signature Bank (SBNY), and Silvergate (SI), there is an understandable reluctance among US commercial banks to increase exposure and/or engage with crypto-related firms.”

Evercore ISI reiterates Amazon as outperform

Evercore said it’s “staying patient with the long thesis on Amazon.”

“We maintain our Outperform on AMZN in the wake of several key updates, though we are lowering our estimates and PT (from $160 to $155) based on a more conservative approach to the AWS segment.”

William Blair upgrades Allstate to outperform from market perform

William Blair said in its upgrade of the insurance company that it’s well positioned.

“We suggest investors buy Allstate as the shares are primed for good near- and long-term upside.”

Bernstein upgrades Intel to outperform from market perform

Bernstein said things are slowly improving for Intel.

“But while things still look bad, tactically we believe the medium-term set-up is, finally, improving a bit, as the company’s issues are known, and numbers (for the first time in a while) may be low enough to stand.”

Bank of America downgrades ADP and Paychex to underperform from neutral

Bank of America downgraded several payment solutions company stocks, noting they tend “to lag when unemployment starts rising.”

“our analysis suggests that both ADP and PAYX tend to underperform the S&P 500 during the initial phase of a rising unemployment cycle. BofA Global Research’s Economics team forecasts unemployment starting to rise in 3Q23 and peaking in 2Q24 and also forecasts just one more 25bps rate hike before cuts start in 1Q24.”

Raymond James upgrades Alaska Airlines to strong buy from outperform

Raymond James said in its upgrade of the airline that it has a “relatively unimpaired balance sheet.”

“We are upgrading ALK from Outperform to Strong Buy as it exits the seasonally weakest quarter (generally experiencing a weaker 1Q than most U.S. peers) and is in a position to unlock benefits from the A320/Q400 fleet transition, which is expected to be completed by May.”