To The Moon

Wall Street analysts' forecast for Mar 2023 - Consumer Price Index

Based on all the official reports & data out so far, they seemed to be indicating that US economy and inflation is falling “gradually”. Click here to read about the Official data & report !

Wall street analysts’ have predicted that Mar 2023 CPI will come in at 5.2%.

Is that too optimistic ?

Conservatively, I think it will be maybe 5.3% or 5.4%. We will know soon !

US market performances for 11 Apr 2023 (Tue)

Anticipation for Mar 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) also caused US market to trade mixed on Tue (11 Apr), refer to above diagram.

By The Time Market Closed:

• DJIA : +0.29% (+98.27 to 33,684.79).

• S&P 500 : -0.00% (-0.17 to 4,108.94).

• Nasdaq: -0.43% (-52.48 to 12,031.88).

With Goldman Sachs laying out 4 possible CPI Index scenarios (refer to above diagram), the market may become buoyant should the inflation index becomes favourable.

If this proves to be true - I only have one question in my mind and that is :

Is It Time To Focus On Bank Stocks Again ?

JP Morgan - past 1 year stock price

Using $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ as an example :

• We could see that JP Morgan is still slightly off its past 1-year performance, coming in at -2.3%

• With its impending Q1 2023 quarterly earnings out this Fri (14 Apr), will the financial institute be able to better its Q4 2022 quarterly earnings results ?

• What about the funds JP Morgan helped to rally and pumped to keep First Republic Bank afloat, will it be parked under “loan” category in its latest balance sheet ?

How To Make A More Informed Choice ?

Nasdaq - YTD Bank Index

• We need to take a step backwards and look at the overall US banking landscape to get a sense of the current situation

• This means looking at the KBW - Nasdaq Bank YTD Index (refer to above diagram)

• Do you see this as a glass half-full (optimistic) or glass half-empty (pessimistic) scenario ?

Who Else To Listen To / Reference ?

JP Morgan, CEO Jamie Dimon's view on banks (04 Apr 2023)

Mr Warren Buffet throwing shades at banking sector's failures on 12 Apr 2023

Time To Buy Into Bank Stocks - My View !

We need to remember that even in the worst of times, there is money to be made in the US market.

Question is : Are we able to seize these opportunities that are far, few and in-between especially during “bad” times ?

Depending on one’s appetite (for risk and/or ability to hold onto a stock) there is definitely bank stock/s that are worth investing between now and the near horizon.

Of course, one will have to do your homework and due diligence, locating for a bank based on your list of criteria.

As for intangible criteria, it could be the bank’s international presence, its ESG goals, its digitalisation program / development path to bring the bank into the next century etc…

For a “safe” bet - it could be one of the bigger US banks like - JP Morgan, $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ , $UBS Group AG(UBS)$ that I believe stands to gain alot from acquiring Credit Suisse.

For more “calculated” bet - it could be $First Republic Bank(FRC)$ and maybe even $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ .

• Do you think bank stocks still have potentials ?

• Do you think Inflation will continue to fall organically until 2% ?

Please “LIKe” this post ok. Thanks. Your rating is very important to me !!

Do consider “Follow me” so that you get first hand read of my daily new posts. Thanks.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerPM