To The Moon

It's the Final Countdown.

To the end of the bear market... At least that's what a Morgan Stanley strategist Micheal Wilson said. 

Well here are some thoughts.

1. Bank saga in US and rest of the world is not over yet. Not the time to go bottom fishing this week yet. As US authorities work out "bail out" plans, there will be turmoil and volatility. 

For the record, 4 banks have failed in March. Is there no one else? [Glance] 

Warren Buffett has also been consulted for his advice and to rescue some bank (looking at you SVB) I presume. 

2. Crypto a hedge and a winner? BTC gained and holding strong as M1 money supply is in turmoil. 

For the past year, crypto was battered. However, the failure of traditional banking system has now cast light on crypto again. 

Maybe, just maybe decentralised banking is the way to go for the future! 

3. After this banking fiasco,  credit and lending becomes tight, very tight. As banks scramble to shore up their assets and capital, I foresee stricter regulations for loans to businesses and consumers. This has a knock on effect on economy growth and consumer spending. In short, everything slows down and we get a Recession! But don't quote me on this. 

4. Fed might just pause the rate hike earlier than expected due to the banking crisis. This might be the pivot that everyone was anticipating. And the best thing is that it was not planned, if it really happened. 

Even without further rate hike, inflation might drop naturally, as the global economy weakens. 

5. Property prices peak and weaken in the next 6 to 12 months because of the high interest rate PLUS tighter lending from the banks. Consumers feel the pinch in having to pay more from high interests and less consumers are able to secure the required loans. This leads to a drop in demand. 

6. Finally, the stock market stops rallying and remains volatile. Interestingly, this creates opportunity. Like the great financial crisis in 2008, eventually the financial system recovers. Thus, with every drop, therein lies a chance to enter the undervalued market. It is very likely, the days of aggressive rate hikes are almost over. 

As the stock market is forward looking, it might be time for us to look forward earlier too. 

@TigerStars  @MillionaireTiger  @CaptainTiger  @Tiger_chat