The sudden emergence of a banking crisis and the forceful moves to quell it have made the upcoming Fed meeting difficult to predict

$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ 

A hectic week for the stock market ended reasonably well, except for a handful of banks. What promises to be a frantic weekend of financial sector news could well set the tone for next week, although Jerome Powell and his Open Market Committee posse will steal the limelight with Wednesday's rate policy announcement.

The sudden emergence of a banking crisis and the forceful moves to quell it have made the upcoming Fed meeting difficult to predict. Fed watchers on Wall Street contend that Wednesday's Fed decision to hike or not may depend on the level of the S&P 500 going into the meeting. If markets are calm, the Fed may feel safe in hiking its key rate a quarter point to a range of 4.75% to 5%. If markets lose composure, the Fed may not risk a hike. The key question is whether steps taken to stem the crisis — both the government moves and the big-bank rescue of First Republic Bank — are sufficient to restore confidence in small and midsize banks. Early Friday, markets priced in 73% odds of a rate hike.

As of Friday morning, markets were pricing in 73% odds of a rate hike and 27% odds that the Fed will stand pat.

The outlook for interest-rate moves beyond this week is even more uncertain. At the moment, markets are betting that the Fed's key rate will fall to a range of 4% to 4.25% by year-end. However, the Fed's new quarterly projections issued next week might now show rate cuts. Even if the Fed pauses, it's still conceivable that policymakers could pencil in another rate hike under the assumption that the dicey climate for banks stabilizes.

Outside of the Fed rate decision, the coming week's economic calendar is light. Jobless claims for the week through March 18, out Thursday, will be closely watched for any sign of an uptick in layoffs after the latest reports showed claims surprisingly fell to 192,000. S&P Global preliminary readings on manufacturing and service-sector activity for March are due out Friday.

A tumultuous week for financial stocks helped the Nasdaq pull away from the S&P 500 and Dow industrials but still left the market's status "in correction." The Nasdaq has a five-day rally attempt underway. But any new uptrend that emerges isn't likely to amount to much until the S&P 500 manages to overcome resistance at its 200-day moving average.

# 💰 Stocks to watch today?(15 Apr)

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment42

  • Top
  • Latest
  • fishinglo
    ·2023-03-19
    Closed my SQQQ calls and TQQQ puts for a nice profit when SQQQ hit 34.70s and TQQQ hit 24.30s. Going back to SQQQ puts and TQQQ calls.
    Reply
    Report
  • YorkTurner
    ·2023-03-19
    TQQQ is intended to mirror (x3) the Nasdaq 100, not the Nasdaq. The large caps in the Nasdaq 100 are outperforming the broader Nasdaq.
    Reply
    Report
  • riemann24
    ·2023-03-19
    It is going to be volatile as the market gets tugged between fed actions and investor expectations which are fundamentally different
    Reply
    Report
  • YaleBrewster
    ·2023-03-19
    Bot few at 24.20 for dead cat bounce , told you would try double profit today. Let see
    Reply
    Report
  • YvetteGunther
    ·2023-03-19
    Closed my position at 24.50. Will buy back next week sub 22. Cheers!
    Reply
    Report
  • RickSanchez
    ·2023-03-19
    how sticky is your rice
    Reply
    Report
  • Inji
    ·2023-03-19
    👍
    Reply
    Report
  • Shankly1
    ·2023-03-19
    Ok
    Reply
    Report
  • Angela79
    ·2023-03-19
    Ok
    Reply
    Report
  • Mmcheya
    ·2023-03-19
    Bb
    Reply
    Report
  • Angela79
    ·2023-03-19
    Ok
    Reply
    Report
  • Chillpadi
    ·2023-03-19
    Stick
    Reply
    Report
  • JonNel1222
    ·2023-03-19
    right
    Reply
    Report
  • Universe宇宙
    ·2023-03-19
    [LOL]
    Reply
    Report
  • RK0948
    ·2023-03-19
    ok
    Reply
    Report
  • Andrina A
    ·2023-03-19
    ok
    Reply
    Report
  • R Lim
    ·2023-03-19
    ok
    Reply
    Report
  • xiaohu94
    ·2023-03-19
    Cool
    Reply
    Report
  • kianomania
    ·2023-03-19
    K
    Reply
    Report
  • Baoxiaolong
    ·2023-03-19
    buy
    Reply
    Report