To The Moon

The average of the United States indices ended the week in the green on the background of new ones concerning the banking sector ...

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fence at 3.970.99 in a rise of 0.56% , the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ finished at 11.823.96 up 0.31%, while the $DJIA(.DJI)$ finished at 32.237.53 with an advance of 0.41%.

WEEK SUMMARY

• The Federal Reserve noted its reference rate of a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, continuing its efforts to combat inflation despite the turbulence of the banking system, but also suggesting that the end of the rate increases would be close …

The federal funds increased from 4.75% to 5%, marking the ninth increase in approximately one year and bringing the reference rate to its highest level since 2007.

The latest summary of the economic projections of the FOMC, "Dot plot", showed that the median estimate among members places the maximum rate of federal funds at 5.1% this year, which would imply another upcoming increase…

The Fed "will closely monitor the incoming information on the ongoing banking turbulence and will assess the implications for monetary policy". The president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, at his press conference after the meeting this afternoon, echoes this feeling.

• Although rates may come to the point where FOMC members consider them sufficiently restrictive, the fight against inflation would not yet be finished ...

Powell said on Wednesday that the process was continuing, but that there was work to do to bring back inflation towards the 2% target of the Fed. "History is almost the same," he said.

MARKET SCENARIO

• Banking values, including regional banks, continued to weigh on the market. $SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF(KRE)$ .

ETF SPDR S&P Regional Banking

• The market would remain nervous on banks right now ... $Deutsche Bank AG(DB)$

The Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that energetic measures had been taken to "ensure that the depots of the Americans are safe" and that "we would be ready to take additional measures if necessary".

• The market also tries to digest the last rate increase in a quarter of the federal reserve, announced on Wednesday. Although it seems that the Fed is about to conclude its tightening program, we do not know when it could start to reduce its rates ...

The long -term market places the chances of a break in May in the rate increases at 65%, against 40% a week ago, according to Fed Watch Tool.

Speaking at his press conference on Wednesday, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, noted that the participants in the Federal Open Market Committee "do not see a drop in rates this year".

• The treasure market, however, does not believe it ...

The two -year treasure, which is closely linked to the terminal rate, or where the rate of the Fed Funds finally stabilizes when the Fed ends up tightening, slipped by almost 17 base points to end a yield of 3.808% Thursday ...

This yield rushedly dropped by around 125 bases since it reached its top of 5.064 % over 52 weeks on March 8, when the concerns about $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ surfaced for the first time ...

US 2Y

The 10 -year treasure yield ended the day at 3.406 %, down approximately nine base points. It was 4.08% in early March…

SPX LEVELS

• With markets unable to make significant progress and SPX backwards after a new unsuccessful attempt in 4000, we are back in the heart of the gamma of dealers with very little group of calls and 0dte on us ...

• It seems that the banking crisis triggered by the Silicon Valley Bank has considerably changed the tone of the market and we could attend an increase in the long -term protection offer ...

Please find below the levels selected for SPX (here : Last week)

• Key level: 4000

• Upper area: 4030 - 4050 with 4065 in major resistance.

• Lower zone: 3950-3900-3850 with 3800 in major support.

SPX Levels

AGENDA

The major events of the week are:

• American consumer confidence index of the Conference Board (Tuesday),

• The preliminary figures for German inflation in March and the last estimate of the fourth quarter GDP in the United States (Thursday).

• Inflation of the euro zone in March and PCE inflation in the United States (Friday).

• Speech by the boss of the American Treasury Janet Yellen (Thursday) and speech by the president of the ECB Christine Lagarde (Friday).

Thank you for reading and supporting. Welcome to new subscribers

@TigerStars @TigerPM