If We Have Amazon Stock, Time To Re-Assess As Soon?
US March 2023 CPI - released on 12 Apr 2023
The supposed “celebration” for a “drastic” fall of -0.1% to US CPI Mar 2023 from Feb (6.0%) to 5% proved to be short-lived.
The straw that broke the camel’s back was the FOMC Mar 2023 minutes of meeting.
FOMC Mar 2023 minutes of meeting reveal
2 Key Points :
Fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later 2023
Although Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision said the banking sector “is sound and resilient,” staff economists said the economy will take a hit.
On a separate note. More official data has been released today.
These should help to turn the market around today - Thu (14 Apr 2023); re-capturing Wed (13 Apr) lost grounds.
US Weekly Jobless claims for week ending 08 Apr
Weekly jobless claims increased by +4.82% from previous week’s 228,000 to 239,000 vs market expectation of 232,000 claims
This is further evidence that labor market conditions were easing as higher borrowing costs dampen demand in the economy
US Apr 2023 - Producer Price Index
PPI is another leading indicator of consumer price inflation
Its Apr 2023 reading is -0.5% vs analysts’ expectation of 0.1%.
Once again, evidence that underlying producer inflation is subsiding
Why It Is “Time” To Re-Assess Amazon ?
With the 3 favourable data set (CPI, PPI & Weekly Jobless claims) out this week, market sentiments should remain boisterous and close off Fri (15 Apr) on a “high”.
Where Concerns For $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Stems From ?
Is Amazon CEO - Andy Jassy making his early-round of socializing prior to company’s Q1 2023 quarterly earnings report ?
Amazon is estimated to release its 2023 first quarterly earnings report on or around Thu, 27 Apr 2023
From the look of things, revenue contribution from Amazon Web Services (AWS) should be registering a negative growth in the coming earnings reporting.
If there is any “brighter” note, it would have to be the “savings” to be had as a result of retrenching 27,000 staff.
Apart from that, Mr Jassy also touched on Amazon’s emerging business ventures (Chip manufacturing, AI persue in area of LLM, Healthcare projects etc…) that are still in its infancy stage.
While attempting to paint a rosy big picture, I don’t foresee the new businesses’ contributions to make a dent in Amazon’s revenue composition.
Assuming Thu, 27 Apr 2023 is Amazon’s quarterly earnings reporting day :
There are 10 working days for investor to strategize his/her next action course
Would now be take profit and partial-sell some stocks on hand ?
If the results proved to be “flat” or “lower YoY”, then buy back when stock price dips ?
Do you think Amazon CEO’s “timely” newslatter to shareholders is throwing hints to the US market on its possible impending Q1 2023 earnings report ?
Do you think now would be the time to sell OR partial sell Amazon; only to buy them back when stock price falls further ?
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