To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Bullish31% gain taking calls follow by puts from FOMC minutes release. ⚠️ Looking at calls above 409 and puts under 406.85 on Thursday. Be ready for another move for Jobless claims and PPI numbers at 8:30am.

Trade up & down the trendline

SUMMARY OF FED MINUTES (4/12/23)

1. Fed officials lower target interest rate due to banking crisis

2. Several officials considering pausing rate hikes

3. Fed projects “mild recession” starting in 2023

4. All officials backed 25 bps hike

5. US government ran $378 billion deficit in March

Bear is back or what?

During the March meeting, several participants noted they considered whether it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged at this meeting. However these participants noted actions taken helped calm conditions and lower near-term risks, allowing them to judge an increase as appropriate.

Prior to banking stresses many had seen the appropriate policy path as being somewhat higher than in December.

Pre-meeting data indicated slower than expected progress on inflation.

Participants agreed there was little evidence pointing to disinflation for core services excluding housing.

Participants assessed labor demand as substantially exceeding supply.

Fed staff projected a mild recession starting later in 2023.

If banking and financial conditions and their effects on macroeconomic conditions were to deteriorate more than assumed in the baseline, then the risks around the baseline would be skewed to the downside for both economic activity and inflation, particularly because historical recessions related to financial market problems tend to be more severe and persistent than average recessions.

Banking sector developments likely to result in tighter credit conditions and weigh on activity, hiring and inflation.

Several participants noted regional and community banks as providing critical financial services to many communities and industries.

Participants agreed that the U.S. banking system remained sound and resilient.

Actions taken so far by Fed. US authorities and Foreign authorities, had helped calm conditions in the banking sector.

Participants noted that recent developments in the banking sector and the associated rise in uncertainty would likely weigh on consumer sentiment and that increased caution on the part of consumers could restrain spending.

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