I hope everyone is enjoying the long weekend. I spent some time doing a little study on the S&P 500. Ever since the S&P 500 breached a 20% drawdown, entering a technical recession, it rebounded >15% from the low only to make a lower low. I wanted to know if something similar happened in the past.

I found that outside of the Great Depression, there were 12 instances of the S&P 500 breaching a 20% drop, followed by a rebound of >15% from the low. Only 3 resulted in a subsequent lower low, including the one we saw recently. The rest all marked the start of a new bull market.

As for the 2 periods that are similar to today, one is the Tech Bubble and the other is the Great Financial Crisis. For both periods, the NBER declared an official recession soon after the lower low was made. This is because the unemployment rate has been rising for some time.

This is where we find ourselves in uncharted waters. Quite a fair bit of time has passed since the recent lower low was made, a regional banking crisis happened, and Credit Suisse is no more. Yet, the latest unemployment rate still printed a decrease! It doesn't look like the NBER is going to call a recession anytime soon.

I've attached the S&P 500 charts for the various periods in this little GIF presentation. I've only shown one instance where a new bull market started since there are too many such instances. Enjoy!$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$