To The Moon

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ When the market ends up in Q1 it has historically always ended up on the year. There are a couple of longer-term bullish signals developing e.g. the Coppock Index, and survey pessimism persistence. The Nasdaq is currently exhibiting bearish breadth divergence, and is historically stretched vs small caps (and small caps are at historic lows vs large caps). Weaker macro data is likely to reinforce downward momentum in earnings revisions and downside surprises to growth stock revenues. Historically a weaker US dollar has been good for emerging market equities (relative to developed markets). Overall thoughts one interesting point to note is that it is starting to become easier to find bullish charts (vs mostly bearish charts previously). But the evidence still mostly points to bigger picture the bear/range-trade being a more drawn out process. And along those lines I would say be very careful if you have informed your mental models only on the last couple of years (e.g. compare and contrast 2000-2003 vs 2020).