Daily Charts - Global Equities asset allocation 2025
1.Global Equities asset allocation 2025Tip: don't mindlessly drift into what worked over the past couple of yearsWhat worked the best is now at risk due to overvaluationWhat lagged behind is now best positioned... $S&P 500(.SPX)$$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$$DJIA(.DJI)$ Image2.Four Interesting Charts on Gold Discusses: ATH clustering in secular bulls, central bank buying, miners cash flow, mining stock prices in perspective, gold vs other asset class total returns...ImageImageImageImage3.Seems like once-a-generation both Stocks *and* Bonds experience losses both at the same time --certainly makes a case for being more thoughtful about portfolio diversification effortsIm
1."Valuations don't matter"Seems like analyst creativity rises exponentially around stockmarket peaks.Nothing new in markets and investor psychology! $S&P 500(.SPX)$$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$$DJIA(.DJI)$ Image2.Crude Conundrum-stuck in the range-buyers running out of steam-sellers can't get it below supportWhen this stalemate breaks it is going to be a *huge* move... $WTI Crude Oil - main 2503(CLmain)$ Image3.Most important chart on Gold ?We are in the middle of a historic rebalancing of reserve portfolios.Meanwhile most retail and institutional investors are still stuck in the old ways...
1.Compare and ContrastChina vs US Tech stocksUS Tech: extreme expensive, investors all-in, blue sky narratives, AI hypeChina Tech: cheap, investors are skeptical, FUD narrativesWho has the most to gain? $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$$Invesco China Technology ETF(CQQQ)$ Image2.Leading vs Lagging...Gold relative performance vs other major assets tells an interesting story for Asset Allocators.Gold first turned up vs cash, and then vs bonds, and then now it leaves the open question: (when) will gold turn up vs stocks? $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image3.Beware the Curse of the Thematic/Sector ETF launch... 👻 😱 For a number of reasons, ETF launches have often marked the peak o
1.Credit Risk Pricing Cycles Credit Spreads go through cycles as investors adjust the risk premium they demand over and above "risk-free" treasury yields to take on credit risk. These cycles echo and mirror the equity market cycle, but feature the same drivers, behavioral patterns, and periods of opportunity vs risk.As things stand now we are going through the trough, but the time to be tactically concerned is when it starts un-troughing 🧐 🤓 ✍️ 🗒️Image2.That is a shocking divergenceMakes you wonder how sustainable it is (the blue line is to a great degree propped up by big tech)Also makes you wonder what it would take for the black line to turnaround...Image3.Why bother with Risk Management?Math.The steeper the loss, the bigger the gain required to just get back to square.Image4.Even if th
1.Volatility rises Below...As they say: "nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average"Something to keep in mind $S&P 500(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Gold Miners' cash flow just reached a 13-year high, but here's the funny thing...Investors are Sleeping on gold mining stocks $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image3.Seasonal Tailwinds for Crude OilA perfect storm of upside risk is brewing for commodities, and this comes at a time when disinflation has stalled. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2503(CLmain)$ Image
Someone asked me if there's anything we can learn from Coffee (price) Bubbles, and it got me pondering...1. Going back to 1970, they seem to happen with regularity around every 10-years.2. They tend to peak in blow-off top fashion, and then fall about as sharply as they surged.3. They also seem to happen in some proximity with stock market peaks/economic crises (which I would guess would be a reflection of echoes with commodity prices in general; inflation; and interest rates)Made me think anyway...Image
1.Notice a Pattern here?The chart shows Gold vs total returns (interest/dividends reinvested) for cash, bonds, and stocks. Gold turned up first vs Cash.Then it turned up vs Bonds.And soon, also vs stocks? $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image2.Too many All-Time Highs?Nope, this is entirely normal for gold during Secular Bull marketsImage3.Relative earnings performance has been driving US vs Global relative price performance (and then some)With US equities now trading at a record premium vs global, investors would do well to keep an eye on that red line...Image4.Test of Time...Despite the increasing pace of innovation and digital disruption, and more recently the rise of AI, turns out some of the largest companies are also the oldest.The average age
ATH ClusteringFirst up this week is a look at historical All-Time-Highs (ATH) in the gold $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ price — as Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research reminds us: “Gold can go decades without an all-time high. But, in secular bull markets, ATHs cluster together. These moves always go higher than you would guess and are incredibly persistent.“ Central Bank BuyingOn what has been a major gold price tailwind, Krishan Gopaul of the World Gold Council remarks: “Central banks added 1,045t to global gold reserves in 2024, the third consecutive year that demand topped 1,000t. This continued strength of demand exceeded even our already-lofty expectations.“ Gold Miner Cash FlowTavi Costa of Crescat Capital muses on miners’ lackluster performa
Daily Charts - Seasonality works differently in Bull Markets vs Bear Markets
1.Did you Know?Seasonality works differently in Bull Markets vs Bear Markets"Sell in May" is really a Bear Market thing... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Image2.Gold miners are trading at the steepest relative value discount since the peak of the dot com bubble...That tells us 2 Very Important thingsImage3.The forward looking or prospective Equity Risk Premium is set to be *negative* for the USA...But *positive* for everyone else.How could this be?Image4.Chart of the day. $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image
1.Silver is cheap vs GoldThere's a few reasons for this, but overall it represents a compelling relative value opportunity -- especially given the shifting macro currents... $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$$Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image2.The upside case for silver is clearBut investors are dumping Silver ETFsSentiment Signal?Image3.Gold Miners Left Behind: Unlike the gold price, gold mining stocks have basically been in a 5-year trading range. They have defied the strong trend in the rest of the stockmarket and in the gold price. Time for a change? $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Image4.Gold is in a Secular Bull Market.Here's why + what to expect nextImage