OXY - Berkshire Energy Stocks Share Count Increase in 2022/2023
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Berkshire Share Count Increase Over Q3 2022
Below is the Share Increase for Q3 2022, as they did not do any in Q4 2022. Berkshire has increased their share count in Q3 2022 for $Occidental(OXY)$.
We might want to take a look at how OXY have performed to warrant Buffet to increase such a high percentage.
Do remember there was a 1.16 million barrels a day, follows a cut of two million barrels a day in October 2022. (Q3 2022)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Stocks Share Increase
Berkshire has increase the shares by around 8.93% in Q1 2023, when they have done a 43.15% increase in Q3 2022.
OPEC+ announced another production cut in April 2023, this might be signal that Buffet know that this is going to happen in Q2 2023(Apr-Jun 2023), that is why he has also increase the OXY share count.
But let us see how OXY share price has stacked up against the crude oil price in these 2 share count increase.
Long Term and Short Term Stock Price vs Oil Production Output by OXY
If we were to put what Benjamin Graham has said about short term and long term investing
Over the short term, the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it will be a weighting machine.
If we look at how the earnings per share (EPS) with share price, we will have a flawed but reasonable way that is to assess how sentiment around OXY has changed.
If we look at end of 2021, we can see that the share price has grown strongly. Could the stocks share count by Buffet(Berkshire) has to push up the stock price?
If we follow why they have loaded so much in Q3 2022, we will have to see the news on crude oil prices.
When the stocks share count increase in Q3 2022, that is the time when production cuts is announced by OPEC, and crude oil price did fall between Q3 to Q4 2023.
Similarly, the crude oil price also fell when Berkshire load more share count in Q1 2023, what does it tell us? I believe this has something to do with OXY’s production in the US Permian Basin.
OXY CEO has informed that US Permian has not yet seen peak oil production, yet 80%-90% of the increase will come from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-permian-has-not-yet-seen-peak-oil-production-occidental-ceo-2023-04-12/
So are we seeing more production ramped up by OXY in the coming quarter, this would be good news if that happen.
OXY Forward Plan to increase oil production in Permian basin
I believe why Berkshire has loaded more share in OXY could be due to the fact that OXY will overcome the production cut by OPEC+ which is going to start in May 2023, by increasing their output from the Permian basin.
This would help OXY to maintain a competitive advantage not only against competitor U.S. producers, they would be able to supply oil at a better price, come May 2023.
Summary
As an investor in energy stocks, I would like to see a strong U.S. producer like OXY take advantage of the situation.
Turning a crisis (due to oil production cut) to increasing output from a under-production area (e.g. Permian Basin of West Texas and West Mexico).
I would think it is a good idea to follow what Berkshire(Buffet) next action will be come Q2/Q3 on Stocks Share Count for OXY.
I believe Berkshire will seize the opportunities to load more OXY shares (as a form of DCA, dollar cost averaging).
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“OPEC+ announced another production cut in April 2023, this might be signal that Buffet know that this is going to happen in Q2 2023(Apr-Jun 2023), that is why he has also increase the OXY share count.”
OXY will sink after earnings, like it always does, then Warren will get another chunk on the cheap, maybe make it back to low 60's in a month or 2, rinse, repeat.
I think coca cola boy buys oil stocks for tax loss purposes. He is always buying at the top and selling at the bottom. This stock isn't a buyout candidate with all this debt, enterprise value through the roof for this stock.
$西方石油(OXY)$ is good to buy as oil price is rising now.
Buffett will eventually buy all of OXY. Like he did with BNSF. Only a matter of time.
we should see the buffet buy presser after rates increase .25 to prop stock again
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
Looks like oxy's the best performer in the sector
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
Should we follow what Buffet bought?