Alibaba’s strong domestic customer base, and its ability to delivery virtually any product to any buyer in China, gives the company a solid foundation to stand on – and as a result, earnings have been rising for several quarters now. The company reported a top line of US$29.12 billion in the last reported quarter (fiscal 2Q23, corresponding to calendar 3Q22), for a modest 3% y/y gain. Income from operations, at US$3.5 billion, showed a far stronger jump, of 68% y/y, and the non-GAAP diluted EPS of US$1.82 per American Depositary Share was up 15% from the year-ago period, and 7% above the forecast $1.70.
All in all, investors were happy with what they saw and BABA shares have gained approximately 40% since the earnings release.
Morgan Stanley’s Gary Yu takes an aggressively bullish stance on Alibaba, stating flatly, “We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days.”
Putting some meat on those bones, Yu adds, “We see 1) an inflection in customer management revenue (CMR) on the back of consumption recovery in China, and 2) reacceleration in cloud revenue driven by non-internet industries, fueling high-quality earnings growth…. We also believe BABA will outperform other China Internet stocks during the current easing regulatory environment…. We view BABA as a key beneficiary of China’s reopening and a proxy for inflows to China from global investors.”
These are strong opinions, and they back up Yu’s Buy rating on BABA shares, while his $150 price target points toward a 35% gain by the end of 2023.
Furthermore, investors are now optimistic that all that negativity is behind BABA after Jack Ma cuts voting stake in Ant Group to 6%. Therefore, I believe BABA is out of the wood. My target price is $135.
Modify on 2023-01-10 22:12
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