To The Moon

My afterthoughts to Tiger_chat 's question of whether an investor profits from a good company or a good price ?

"Why not both" I asked myself ?

Wouldn't there be more upsides comparatively speaking ?

Having put the theory to test on different company types (see below for details); time to try it on a Transport Tech company ?

Testing $Uber(UBER)$ & see if it fits the bill.

Sidetrack: Below are stocks that I have covered. Interested ? Click to read.

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• CVS Health Corp 
• Pepsi Inc
• Google
• T-Mobile
• Chipotle Mex Grill
• Amazon
• McDonalds
• United Parcel Services (UPS)
• Spotify Inc
• Apple Inc
• Meta Platform (Facebook)
• AMD
• Snap Inc
• General Motors
• Visa Inc

• An American company that has marry technology & the services it provides
• It has been described as "Disruptor" in the transport industry
• Founded in Mar, 2009
• Founders were Garrett Camp & Travis Kalanick
• Inspiration came from personal experiences of (a) spending $800 to hire a private driver on New Year's Eve that they deemed excessive (b) difficulty in finding a taxi on a snowy night in Paris
• In May 2010, a beta version of Uber was launched
• By 2011, a finalized version was launched in San Francisco
• Originally it was named UberCab. However the "cab" was dropped from the brand after complains from San Francisco taxi operators.
• By 2013, it was operating in 35 US cities.
• By the time Uber was listed on 10 May 2019 at $45 per share.
• By then, this disruptor has "infected" the world along with its host of services eg. Uber eats, UberX, UberRent etc..
• Its business model is currently affecting72 countriesand10,200 citiesworldwide.

In 2022, a year where US market has been hammered by extreme volatility and ease of covid pandemic restrictions - how did Uber Technologies fare ?

Uber - Summary

• Revenue came in at $8.6 Billion vs $5.78 Billion (Q4 2021); that's a +48.96% gain
• Net income (GAAP) came in at $595 Million vs $892 Million (Q4 2021); that's a -33.3% decline.
• Earnings per share (GAAP) was $0.29vs $0.44 (Q4 2021); that's a -34.0% decline.
• Loss from Operations was $142 Million vs $550 Million (Q4 2021); that's an improvement by  +74.18%

Uber - Revenue by segment

• Uber three core businesses are (1) Rides, (2) Food delivery, or (3) Shipping
• Uber's largest source of revenue comes from its Ride business (48.1% of total revenue).
• Followed by its Delivery business (34.1% of total revenue).
• Uber's Shipping (Freight) rounds up Uber's revenue composition with 17.9%.

Uber - Revenue by Region

Revenue By Region - Percent Change  :

• It is almost equal (+30%) contributions from the 3 regions of (a) US & Canada, (b) Latin America and (c) Asia Pacific,
• The "star" performer looks to be EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa) region with a +100% or more contribution.
• This is a "heartening" news; implying that there is growth to be "had evev as this business model matures.

Uber - Gross bookings by segment

• For this transport business that centres on "Bookings as a service", it is insightful to know where the bookings are streaming in from because the fees command varies accordingly.
• For Q4 2022, there is a healthy volume growth of +19%; totalling to $30.7 Billion.
• Distribution of the bookings (strangely enough !) is also quite equitable amongst its 3 core businesses segments; each getting around 14 Billion bookings; with Freight edging out the other 2 core businesses at 15 Billion bookings volume.
• The inference to be had is that there is potential to grow the Freight core business (current at 17.9% revenue contribution) if Uber Management deep dive on how to scale demand for this are of business.

Uber - Other Highlights

• Like all Tech and Financial sectors (eg. AMD, Meta, Alphabet (Google), JP Morgan, Wells Fargo etc...) stocks covered so far - ballooning operational expenses seemed to be the common trait amongst all these companies.
• Uber Technologies is no except but the norm as well.
• Looks like the costs cutting measures reported back in 09 May 2022 hasn't kicked in yet ? (Refer to below snippet).

Uber - costs cutting reported on 09 May 2022 by Reuters

Pepsi Co's CEO on Q4 2022 Results

We ended 2022 with our strongest quarter ever with robust demand and record margins. Our global scale and unique platform advantages position us well to accelerate this momentum in 2023.. Uber Technologies, CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi.....

Is Uber Technologies A Good Price Or A Good Company ?

• For "bookings as a service" business model, it is important that such "low value high volume" approach needs to show proof of growth in terms of bookings / ferrying services.
• A look at above Operating Statistics for Q4 2021 & Q1 - Q4 2022 provided a "powerful" insights into Uber's ability to maintain demand on a "high"

Current stock price < 14 Feb 2022 stock price by  -3.32% only.  Resilient

• Uber stock price is only "down" a mere fraction (-3.32%) compared to its stock price a year ago.
• The resiliency speaks volume of this "booking as a service" company; even when compared to some of the tech giants (mega cap stocks) out in the market.

• Do you think there is growth potential in this Transport stocks as all Covid restrictions are peeled off layer by layer around the World ?
• Do you think Uber Technologies is a good company, at a good entry price now ?

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