Link REIT: Huge DPU dilution, Negative shock!

$LINK REIT(00823)$ 

Last Friday, Link REIT announced a rights issue to raise HKD 18.8 billion for debt reduction and acquisition of more assets. Link REIT plans to offer one rights unit for every five existing units held, with a subscription price of HKD 44.20 per rights unit, which is approximately 29.6% discount from the last closing price. This was a huge negative surprise, as this is the first time Link REIT had to turn to the equity market for funding since its IPO in 2005! Previously, Link REIT has relied on the sale of assets to finance acquisitions.

Approximately 40-50% of the net proceeds generated will go towards repaying existing debt and general working capital needs, with the remaining funds earmarked for future investments with a focus on the retail, car park, office, and logistics sectors in the Asia Pacific region.

EFR Bad timing!

Given Link's large acquisitions and the rising interest rates and uncertain global economy, the rights issue appears to be a reasonable step to take given the company's high debt level. It's worth noting that Link's current borrowing cost, which is above 5%, is higher than the entry NPI yield of 4.9% for the assets in Singapore and its 4.9% FY22 dividend yield.

In my view, this is an inopportune moment and unfavourable market environment to conduct an equity fundraising effort. Unitholders are likely to be reluctant to provide additional capital to Link REIT. Thankfully the rights issue is fully underwritten by DBS, HSBC and JPM. Furthermore, if Link REIT lacked the necessary funding capacity, it should not have proceeded with the acquisition in Singapore. In this regard, Link REIT is less disciplined in acquisition compared to local SREITs such as CICT and CLAR. It went ahead with the expensive SG acquisition, showed unitholders a pro-forma assumption based on 100% debt, and then now do a EFR without disclosing the dilution.

Based on Street’s estimate, the rights issue will be 7% dilutive to its book value per share and 10% dilutive to its DPU.

Conclusion: My thoughts

Link REIT has stated that the rights issue is not directly tied to the acquisition in Singapore, but it is meant to replenish the debt capacity that was used to finance the acquisition. Thus, in a sense, the rights issue and the acquisition are indirectly connected. I do not view this action favourably for unitholders. 

Post-announcement, the share price has tanked 13-15%. At this price point, Link REIT’s rights issue could be DPU Yield accretive (not DPU accretive), but such irresponsible EFR would not entice me to invest in the company, regardless of how low-priced it may be.

@Daily_Discussion @TigerStars 

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  • LMSunshine
    ·2023-02-15
    TOP
    伙计,为什么CPI数据不好,市场在下跌前仍然疯狂上涨?!?!你拿着你的半挂车吗?我在想,如果我应该先获利,以防它回落到低点,然后可以低价回购,但🐂🐂🐂是荒谬的…基于公司和经济表现,股价不应该这么高...但每次我卖出后,价格就会飙升,每次我持有后,股票就会下跌
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    • LMSunshineReplying toSirBahamut
      哎呦!没必要道歉!我差一点就按下了卖出键,幸好我没按下。如果没有,你会看到我的😭脸
      2023-02-15
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    • SirBahamut
      抱歉,先生睡着了。是的,我很惊讶semi走了相反的方向!嗯,semi对我来说是一个长期的游戏,所以我dont认为我现在会卖,除非估价太高,我有别的东西可以买。我很不擅长短线交易,哈哈哈
      2023-02-15
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    • LMSunshine
      不是我的名字Laóó️ó↑️↑↑️️,因为你的文章很好,一定很受🐯🐯🐯的欢迎,所以你的文章很受欢迎,所以你的文章很受欢迎,所以你的文章很受欢迎!
      2023-02-15
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  • LMSunshine
    ·2023-02-13
    Need to ask my REIT buddy-is $MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ a buy for you and why?
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    • LMSunshineReplying toSirBahamut
      The app is hungry🤤🤤🤤
      2023-02-13
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    • LMSunshineReplying toSirBahamut
      Thanks loads buddy❣️ Really appreciate your analysis🥰
      2023-02-13
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    • SirBahamutReplying toLMSunshine
      Haha its structured that way to be tax efficient. 18% is based on historical dpu? Going forward u can expect a DPU haircut of 12-18% because i predict the reit will not payout 100% to shore up cash to pare down leverage, like what they did in 4Q22. So the yield is closer to 10-12% i think. Given the potential high EFR/asset sale risk, not worth it.


      I wrote an article on MUST before on tiger, but somehow it disappeared haha. Maybe its too negative the admin removed it haha
      2023-02-13
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  • FernandoMarc
    ·2023-02-13
    what is a good price to buy if you don't own link REITs now
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  • Chin0927
    ·2023-03-10
    Ok
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  • justforcoins
    ·2023-02-13
    k
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  • FanTG
    ·2023-02-13
    👍🏻
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  • FatKid
    ·2023-02-13
    K
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  • NKCT
    ·2023-02-13
    👌
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  • Trader61
    ·2023-02-13
    Thks
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  • redmerlion
    ·2023-02-13
    Ok
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  • Boo2020
    ·2023-02-13
    k
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  • NP_YT
    ·2023-02-13
    W
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  • Hosay_hosay
    ·2023-02-13
    [Cool][Cool]
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  • LengLeng
    ·2023-02-13
    K
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  • JYChew
    ·2023-02-13
    ok
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  • xiaobaii
    ·2023-02-13

    like

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  • Calvert1234
    ·2023-02-13
    👍🏼
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  • bluemerlion
    ·2023-02-13
    Ok
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  • willwees
    ·2023-02-13
    wow
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