To The Moon

Rising on the recovery in international air traffic

SIAE's ($SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD(S59.SI)$  ) share price is down by around 10% from its May 2022 highs, underperforming the broad STI Index by around 10%. Its core profitability is now more imminent, so this should provide a more attractive entry point for investors to play the earnings recovery story for SIAE, on the back of the recovery in international air traffic.

As China opens up, the recovery trends could be faster. Despite Singapore reopening fully, flight traffic at Singapore Changi Airport (the main base for SIAE's line maintenance operations), is still at 65% of pre-pandemic levels. As this moves towards the 80% mark in 2HFY23, SIE should achieve a core earnings turnaround.

With significant improvement in JV/associate income (engine and component centres) already seen in 1HFY23, there should be more confidence in SIE's earnings delivery in the coming quarters, which should act as a key catalyst for the stock. Note that with a net cash balance sheet, rising interest rates can only be positive for SIAE.

The acquisition of a 75% stake in SR Technics Malaysia, a narrowbody aircraft component repair shop, which could be accretive to earnings and provide synergies in future. This broadens the range of its component repair capabilities. Furthermore, with the potential lease of two hangars in Subang, Malaysia, there will be expansion of its regional base maintenance network. Faster-than-expected restoration of international flights can also help the stock to re-rate.

This stock will appear to be bullish on the pace of earnings turnaround in FY24F and beyond.