To The Moon

In today's edition, we will track the fundamental readings of long term bullish companies in strong (TigerTrade Top 1 Gainer) concepts each week and look forward to your attention and discussion.

Disclaimer: Capital at risk. This is not a direct financial advice or a recommendation to acquire or dispose any investment, but for communication only.

3 of the 3 indexes closed green. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ (+4.82%) led, and $DJIA(.DJI)$ (+2.00%) lagged. The best-performing concept of last week is Solid State Battery, SPACs, Lidar Concept, EV Charger and Hydrogen Energy. The top 5 concepts are all related to EV and could spike on a short squeeze.

$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$

Shares in $Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$ have jumped 52.41% in the past five days leading the SPACs and Lidar Concept to the top 10 of the list.

In SPACs and Lidar concept, let's take a deeper look atLuminar because the company is in a prime position to become a market leader in lidar before the inevitable explosion of this technology. The passenger light vehicle and commercial vehicle markets, with their emphasis on high-speed and long-range premium lidar, seem like the most natural fit for LAZR's technology. When contrasted to the vast bulk of competitors' sub-200m range products, LAZR's estimated range of 250 meters is a distinguishing factor for on-highway applications.

Below are the detailed analysis.

Keypoints:

1. Scalable manufacturing capacity

2. Highly competitive market

3. Valuation

Scalable manufacturing capacity

Instead of using mass-produced, mass-market parts, key components in LAZRs are custom-built or designed by the company. This, in my opinion, serves as a technological barrier to entry because it creates legally enforceable and long-lasting distinction between lidar and competing or alternative technologies. Because LAZR is still in its infancy, the expertise and processes involved in its production are a major selling point.

Rather than bringing in outside help to create their products, LAZR has trained their own employees to develop these skills and capabilities. The end result of all this effort is a long-range detection system that functions as expected and doesn't break the bank.

Highly competitive market

Assessing lidar's competitive positioning is challenging due to the technology's infancy in the automotive industry and the complexity of its many technical aspects.

Different lidar hardware vendors use different signal measurement techniques, light scanning strategies, and wavelengths among other factors to set themselves apart from one another. Different lidar manufacturers take various approaches to vertical integration, logic silicon, and software. Several lidar companies, LAZR included, have solid technical specifications, but I believe that the ability to develop cost - effective solutions, distribute software, and target important end markets will ultimately determine which companies will be more commercially successful in the long-term.

Valuation

My model suggests an intrinsic value of $16.45 in FY23, representing a 251% upside. Note that this is based on a FY30 EBITDA target started by the management, and as such, the path to realizing LAZR intrinsic value is likely to be back-end loaded when it shows more evidence of hitting the target.

Given the strong secular trend for the autonomous vehicle which means higher demand for lidar, I believe LAZR will be able to achieve its FY30 targets eventually. This is especially after reviewing the good performance in 3Q22.

Due to the lack direct comps that are at maturity, I valued LAZR using a market EBITDA multiple with the reason that LAZR should at least be valued similar to the market since it is likely to be growing faster.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567853-luminar-technologies-upside-if-management-hits-fy30-target

Hope this analysis help you get more understanding of the company's whole image, Tiger Picks will follow up the monthly performance as a longterm track.

What are your thoughts on $Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$? Bullish or bearish?

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