To The Moon

24 Feb 2023 marks the 1 year anniversary of 🇺🇦 being invaded by 🇷🇺. 🇺🇦 fought back fiercely for its freedom with the support of countries all over the 🌎 This war that roiled global financial markets at its outbreak in 2022 is showing no signs of ending any time soon🫠🫠🫠

➡️ Biden said new sanctions against 🇷🇺 will be announced this week & foreign ministers of the G7 have said their countries would continue to impose economic costs on 🇷🇺

➡️ Putin has announced the suspension of Russia’s participation in the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) & Nato’s secretary general urged Moscow to reconsider. New START was signed by then 🇺🇸 president Barack Obama & his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, in 2010, & caps the number of strategic nuclear warheads that the 🇺🇸 & 🇷🇺 can deploy. Under the agreement, Moscow & Washington are committed to deploying no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads & a maximum of 700 long-range missiles & bombers. Each side can conduct up to 18 inspections of strategic nuclear weapons sites every year to ensure the other has not breached the treaty’s limits.

What impact will Biden's visit to Kyiv have on the situation in 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 ❓

Biden’s visit to Kyiv has further confirmed to the world that 🇺🇸 will keep supporting 🇺🇦 in their fight with 🇷🇺. For the war to drag on 1 year, I think it’s really embarrassing for 🇷🇺, especially Putin, so I expect the war to escalate in intensity over the next few days to show some significant gains by the anniversary of the invasion (24/2). If 🇷🇺 deploys nuclear warheads/missiles into 🇺🇦 while Biden is there, 🇺🇸 will have a legitimate reason to start a war on 🇷🇺 directly.

What is the impact of the 🇷🇺 -🇺🇦 situation on the global economy❓

Biden has made it crystal clear that the 🇺🇸 will stand with 🇺🇦. Overall Biden’s visit could be seen as 🐂-ish due to the increased 💵💵💵 that will be spent by 🇺🇸 & the rest of NATO on weapons to upgrade their own defence & to supply 🇺🇦. The global economy might actually start to improve due to the increased spending on weapons. Military companies such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, & General Dynamics & Defence ETFs such as Invesco Aerospace & Defense & iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense might do well with the continuing war.

On the other hand, Biden’s visits adds an additional headwind for stocks – both from the political & economic perspectives. The recent flare-up in the 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 conflict & hype around the spy balloon incident have added to uncertainties around 🇨🇳-🇺🇸 ties & has dampened investors’ risk appetite. The timing could not be worse for 🇨🇳 & 🇭🇰 stocks, which have been enduring pullbacks-the HSI has fallen more than 8% from its Jan high. A protracted war jeopardises the global fight against inflation by snarling commodity supplies, which could lead to policy tightening in the 🇺🇸 & capital flight from emerging markets such as 🇨🇳.

If 🇷🇺 deploys nuclear warheads/missiles into 🇺🇦 while Biden is there, I expect the 🇺🇸 stock market to crash💥💥💥

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ $Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF(PPA)$ $iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF(ITA)$ 

How will the war evolve next❓

As with any dictatorship, there is now a daily risk that Putin is overthrown or even assassinated. If Putin is out of the picture, 🇷🇺 can end the war & still save some face. If Putin survives, it will be a long war of attrition😞😔 Will Biden be able to negotiate with Putin to end the war peaceably🕊️🕊️🕊️ I really hope so…

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