To The Moon

I'm now predicting a shallow recession as my baseline for 2023. It is likely to occur in Q3 or Q4, but there is a rising possibility depending on the pace at which Nominal Growth slows and the pace at which inflation falls we could potentially be in for a recession that never materializes until 2024 (or doesn't happen until 2025.)

This is data dependent and I will keep an eye on it, but as of now with almost 500 basis points of Federal Reserve hikes (200bps which happened 12 months ago) the economy is still growing at a very rapid rate (Nominal.)

Corp Profits will still be high and can easily accommodate wage increases, but not forever, so yes, I agree at some point to restore Global Balance the US will need to see some moderation in income growth. It is unsustainable from a Global Standpoint since we are the Center Country. Read the picture agree or disagree but think about it. Equity Market Predictions coming soon!! ;)

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