To The Moon

Weekly review:

After a nice rally last week, stocks $DJIA(.DJI)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$  have shown resilience this week despite hawkish comments from voting members of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee.

• James Bullard suggested that rates were not high enough to contain inflation.

A peak rate of 5% to 7% might be needed to contain inflation. "While the policy rate has risen significantly this year, it has yet to reach a level that could be justified as sufficiently restrictive," Bullard said in his presentation.

A rate as high as 7% should have shocked the market, which expects a Fed Funds rate to peak around 5%...

• Boston Federal Reserve Chair Susan Collins told CNBC that a 75 basis point interest rate hike was "still on the table" for December.

Despite the constant hawkish tones this week from policymakers, Wall Street would remain convinced that there will be a pivot at some point towards the end of next year...

Let's say that here we are making a bet, because nothing has been proven on this so-called pivot...

Market Scenario:

Could the recent better-than-expected US consumer price index have changed the game for the stock market...

Would Wall Street have decided to fight the Fed...

• Let's not forget that the US10y-US 2y yield spread is plummeting and into negative territory. Historically, this scenario is always followed by a regression. 

So let's keep an eye on these data...

However, investors are still hoping for a year-end bullish rally, especially after the strong rebound we've seen in recent weeks, but there's no guarantee...$Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 

OpEx being done, a wind of optimism carried by the Thanksgiving period, could carry the SPX to test 4100...

Calendar:

Wednesday 23, the November PMI indicators for manufacturing and services are released. On the same day, US durable goods orders and the minutes of the last Fed meeting.

Please find below the levels selected for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ :

• 4050-4100 upper area
• 3950-4000: pivot area
• 3900-3800 lower area

Thanks for reading.

@TigerStars @CaptainTiger