To The Moon

Every FOMC, people are always worried about being skewered by market events, so they are not so confident in the trading before the FOMC. But this time it was different. The institution had the answer first: sell $MSFT 20230519 310.0 PUT$ 10,000 lots of options, which means hundreds of millions of dollars of margin. When I saw the option change the only thing I thought was all in Microsoft. Microsoft reported earnings earlier, and they were surprisingly good. That being said, you don't have to be so aggressive and put the sell put at a lower strike price, like 280 or 260. I want to move on to the other stock observations of the week, which are somewhat subjective. I'm going to make an unpleasant judgment for a lot of people: I think FRC is going to go out of business. After the FRC results came out, a lot of options at the $1 strike price were bought out. There is short-term stress response as well as long-term logic. Short - term stress, institutions think financial events have the probability to open the system crisis again. The FRCS 'massive depositor flight, and their attempt to sell $100 billion of assets to replenish liquidity, have been heavily publicised. Capital is watching markets for the worst possible negative response to the FRC. Unfortunately, after the Fed pulled the trigger last time, it seems that the public has decided that a cash withdrawal is no longer such an urgent matter. But the long-term logic is that smaller banks will fail this year, and FRCS will not be the last in a wave. Tighter credit sometimes works better than outright rate hikes, which is what the Fed wants. So is it safe to short FRCS or put money on them? From the market changes of these days can be seen that the decline process will be very tortuous, from the comfort of the position of Microsoft more worry. Big banks are fine, but valuations are affected by the stability of the financial system. FOMC and NFP next week. But if you focus on Microsoft, you don't really have to think about these numbers, and Microsoft is not affected by them. However, the CPI and non-farm services data fell to watch. Continued strength in the services sector is not necessarily a sign of a good economy, but a pullback is more problematic. The services sector is naturally strong as unemployment rises. The so-called service industry refers to odd jobs such as ride-hailing drivers, delivery workers and domestic helpers, which are guaranteed jobs in the whole society. If even the service sector is not strong, and the unemployed are not looking for take-out services, or these jobs are not being hired because of falling demand, then you can imagine how bad the economy is, and surely capital is not cheering the rate cut, but running away. Finally, let's talk about $Meta Platforms(META)$. TikTok was killed by politics. There is no doubt that META is the social leader. Monopoly is the strongest. There is no other platform in the market that can threaten META's position, plus there was a lot of downside last year, making META strong this year, simple as that. But something as simple as that kept me thinking for two quarters.