blashblash
2023-06-03

Replying to @KennethLong:yeah sadly sounds like everyone believe the feds will pause on june meet.  with the strong jobs report, inflation is getting entrenched//@KennethLong:

I agree with you about interest rates going up. Inflation is a real issue that needs to be addressed.

@blashblash：
5 mins quick post June is here, and my thesis from Jan is still wrong But I changed my mind in March (Like i said in my March post) The $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ maintains strength Commodity currencies are down. The Canadian loonie weak. $Canadian Dollar - main 2212(CADmain)$ The price of wheat has dropped a lot. $Wheat - Dec 2023(ZW2312)$ Despite possible El Niño weather. I didnt dare to bet due to conflicting views. Hindsight 20/20 Will my Jan thesis continue to be wrong Or will it reverse So far seems like same old same old 2% inflation still a myth Personally, it was a good month. Mitsubishi Electric, a long time stock i owned, rose. I bought more. But i also lost a lot of money by longing coffee via the Ipath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex TRF It is by another broker too cause cant buy on tiger. So I'm still making a bit of profit overall. Inflation seems like it won't relent. So i think interest rate will go up and wont cut. In my opinion, they're not doing enough I think people who made smart shorts done well Plenty of short opportunities ahead for targeted companies Who will fall after regional banks in the US? Who will fall where liquidity is cut? elon musk predicts Real estate will fall. I tend to agree because a lot of excess liquidity went there But it is too obvious and prob priced in Where else Small, medium than big For june thesis, i will leave you with a long run short thesis: the future of Walt Disney, Lowe's, and Adobe, I'm not optimistic. These companies have a lot of competition, and they make money by charging higher prices for their services, those can easily be replaced by cheaper alternatives during an economic downturn. I think On Holdings might be in a similar situation, but I like their products and they have low debt. Also their customers might not be as affected by a recession. if you're thinking about betting against Adobe's stock, be careful because they're buying back their own shares, which can make it a risky move. Good luck and have good sleep all..
5 mins quick post June is here, and my thesis from Jan is still wrong But I changed my mind in March (Like i said in my March post) The $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ maintains strength Commodity currencies are down. The Canadian loonie weak. $Canadian Dollar - main 2212(CADmain)$ The price of wheat has dropped a lot. $Wheat - Dec 2023(ZW2312)$ Despite possible El Niño weather. I didnt dare to bet due to conflicting views. Hindsight 20/20 Will my Jan thesis continue to be wrong Or will it reverse So far seems like same old same old 2% inflation still a myth Personally, it was a good month. Mitsubishi Electric, a long time stock i owned, rose. I bought more. But i also lost a lot of money by longing coffee via the Ipath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex TRF It is by another broker too cause cant buy on tiger. So I'm still making a bit of profit overall. Inflation seems like it won't relent. So i think interest rate will go up and wont cut. In my opinion, they're not doing enough I think people who made smart shorts done well Plenty of short opportunities ahead for targeted companies Who will fall after regional banks in the US? Who will fall where liquidity is cut? elon musk predicts Real estate will fall. I tend to agree because a lot of excess liquidity went there But it is too obvious and prob priced in Where else Small, medium than big For june thesis, i will leave you with a long run short thesis: the future of Walt Disney, Lowe's, and Adobe, I'm not optimistic. These companies have a lot of competition, and they make money by charging higher prices for their services, those can easily be replaced by cheaper alternatives during an economic downturn. I think On Holdings might be in a similar situation, but I like their products and they have low debt. Also their customers might not be as affected by a recession. if you're thinking about betting against Adobe's stock, be careful because they're buying back their own shares, which can make it a risky move. Good luck and have good sleep all..

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