To The Moon

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The UK stock market has hit an intraday record high, lifted by hopes of interest rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions, after setting a new closing high on Monday. The FTSE 100 index touched 8,076 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, surpassing a previous high of 8,047 reached in February 2023. (source:guardian) on the us side, fed officials are not confident inflation is coming down below their 2% target. historically, the fed is slow to increase interest rate when inflation is creeping up and slow to cut rates when market is already at risk of recession.  $FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$ pnf shows a new high. investors will most likely be buying up for fear of missing out. ukx is the leading indicator of the us market. the us market may not f

In response to rising inflation, the Federal Reserve implemented a two-pronged approach:  * Interest Rate Hikes: The Fed raised the federal funds rate throughout 2022 and early 2023. This makes borrowing more expensive, which can slow economic activity and reduce inflation.  * Balance Sheet Reduction: The Fed also began reducing its balance sheet by letting its holdings of Treasury bonds mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This reduces the money supply in circulation, putting downward pressure on inflation. oil above 80, middle east tensions, supply chain disruptions are causing us inflation to remain elevated. recently fed officials reiterate that there is no urgency to reduce fed rate. the market reaction last night was from green to red. 

After the release of the March CPI, the CME's FedWatch Tool shows that it may be very difficult to cut interest rates twice this year. The current pricing is for a rate cut in September (with a probability of 46%), and a second rate cut in December (with a probability of 33.7% vs. 33.6%).Why does this CPI exceed expectations and have a significant impact on the market?It may once again expose the shortcoming of the Fed's "delayed" judgmentCoincidentally, on April 10th, the day the CPI data was announced, the minutes of the March meeting were also released, indicating that the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains unchanged.Although the Fed has slowed down its balance sheet reduction this year, it does not intend to reduce the pace of reduction.The purchasing power support brough

small caps $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ lags behind large caps $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$ . dia had already made a new all time high but small caps have yet to do so. small caps lag behind because of the high fed interest rate. the large caps are more able to coup with the high fed interest rate by economies of scale.  iwm's pnf showed it is at resistance zone. breaking above this resistance zone would mean that sector rotation is in play. this would mean$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  would continue to make new highs until the small caps run out of steam.  dia has potential to reach 420, 1.618 of Fibonacci retrac

*TA as of 11/3/24 Hi everyone, today I’ll be updating my TA for a pharmacy store chain: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) *I last charted WBA a long time ago. Consider this newsletter the latest forecast on WBA’s price action in the coming months. WBA is trading in a large falling wedge pattern, forming lower highs and (marginally lower) lows over the past 20 years. The most notable sign of reversal has appeared with the formation of a bullish divergence on the monthly chart. Moreover, the stock has corrected more than 78.6% from highs. On the weekly chart, I noticed a possible ascending broadening wedge expansion pattern forming at lows. Weekly also hit 22.70 in September 2023, which has been a reliable reversal level since 1968. On the daily chart, we can see the expansion

Hi everyone! Today we’ll look at a coffeehouse chain that everyone knows: Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) SBUX has been holding this pink trendline since the GFC in 2008, and forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the stock has been consolidating in what appears to be a common occurrence in recent times - a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern with lower highs and higher lows. The stock moved from 70.35 to 115.48 from May 2022 to May 2023, forming a lower high in the wider pattern. It has since retraced about 50% of its move up, and is currently consolidating around the 92-93 area. Something incredibly interesting in SBUX’s chart is that you can see smaller consolidations within a larger consolidation pattern: Note the main consolidation (red), the medium

Hi everyone! Today I’ll be looking at a highly technology-driven ETF: Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ: QQQ) On the weekly chart, the trend is fairly obvious. Note the series of higher highs and higher lows (green ascending trendline), suggesting a long-term uptrend is still in play. However, I note that in the past few months, we have seen declining volume, and the possible formation of a bearish divergence. An uptrend that is not fully supported by volume is not a good sign moving forward. On the daily chart, let’s recap a little. The market consolidated for 3-4 months last year during the seasonally weak window in a descending channel, before breaking out and being in a sustained uptrend with higher highs and lows. We currently find ourselves in an ascending channel pattern. That’s

Hi everyone! Today, we’ll look at an ETF that everybody knows: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA: SPY) Just a quick overview of where we are right now - we were trading in a large descending channel (blue trendlines), that we broke out of recently. Well… I’m pretty sure you know what comes next. Most times, stocks come back to test their breakouts. An ETF, which is a basket of stocks, is no exception to this. Notice how SPY is forming a three-legged bearish divergence with an overall decrease in volume over time. This is indicative of (gradual exhaustion) and an imminent trend change for the short term. What’s also interesting is that SPY failed to make a higher high during Friday’s session. This is indicative of short-term exhaustion and downside. A channel could most likely see a bounce

The January FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate, as expected. Powell's wording indicated that almost all committee members believe that a rate cut is appropriate this year, but they do not see a rate cut in March as likely. The decision to cut rates depends on the economic situation. The implication is that the Fed does not want to raise market expectations too soon, so it actively dampened expectations for a rate cut in March. However, there is a wide range of views within the Fed's committee on the rate cut.Previously, the market implied a 50% probability of a rate cut in March and six rate cuts throughout the year. After the meeting, the implied probability of a rate cut in March decreased to 35%.Rate cut no longer a bullish factor?Looking ahead, e