To The Moon

🔥 Alibaba, PDD, Tencent, JD.com & Sea/Shopee — which one is best positioned for the next AI + e-commerce cycle? I’ve been thinking about the recent debate around Alibaba and Michael Burry’s bearish view. Alibaba is down about 0.7% in the U.S. session in the screenshot, while its Hong Kong shares were slightly higher. But personally, I think focusing only on “Is Alibaba a buy or sell?” misses the bigger picture. 👉 The more interesting question is: What happens to the entire Asian internet sector as companies spend aggressively on AI, compete for online consumers, and try to turn that investment into higher future revenue? Instead of looking at one stock at a time, I want to compare several companies that are exposed to this broader trend: 🇨🇳 Alibaba — AI + Cloud + E-commerce 🇨🇳 PDD Hold

$Alibaba(BABA)$ has raised approximately $10.2 billion by selling new Hong Kong-listed shares after spending almost $10 billion on capital expenditure in a single quarter. The placement gives the company more capacity to build AI infrastructure, but it also transfers part of the risk to shareholders immediately. From this point, cloud growth must become cash generation quickly enough to justify dilution and the lost flexibility of a previously cash-rich balance sheet. $BABA-W(09988)$ reported on August 20 for the quarter ended June 30. Revenue increased 9% to RMB269.0 billion, while AI Cloud and Compute Services revenue rose 45% to RMB48.4 billion. AI-related product revenue reached RMB12.4 billion and d

I would wait rather than chase the insider buy. The more important signal has already arrived in the numbers: Alibaba’s cloud and AI-services revenue grew 45%, but quarterly net profit fell 75% as capex surged 75% to RMB67.68bn.  That actually strengthens both sides of the debate. Bulls can point to genuine cloud reacceleration, while bears can argue that Alibaba is effectively buying that growth at a very high near-term cost. The HK$80bn placement adds dilution and raises the hurdle further. Alibaba now needs to demonstrate that AI infrastructure produces attractive incremental returns, not merely faster revenue. Management is targeting roughly a mid-teens return on AI investment over three years.  So I would treat the CEO purchase as a confidence signal, not a buy signal. The m

Owing the tax collector is a natural choice but it is not risk free. While there is pricing power now, the ability to do so subsequently depends on the tax payers willingness and ability to keep paying the toll - empty pockets or going into debt would be a concern for the tax collector too.

Own the Toll Collector, Not the Toll Payer I’d rather own Nvidia than the companies paying the higher AI bill—but only if its pricing power proves sustainable. Rising memory costs are turning AI infrastructure into a margin test: Nvidia can pass costs downstream, while server builders and cloud providers face heavier capex. The bigger question is whether AI demand remains strong enough to absorb those increases. If customers keep spending aggressively, Nvidia’s pricing power strengthens. If budgets tighten, higher server costs could eventually slow deployments. So for me, Nvidia remains the “toll collector,” but valuation matters. I’d rather buy on meaningful pullbacks than chase strength ahead of earnings. @Marktomarket [微笑]

Hello. Last friday's US session was a quiet one — $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ closed up 0.35 per cent, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 0.41 per cent and the Dow 0.98 per cent — though the week as a whole still finished lower. What mattered happened after the close. On 23 August $BABA-W(09988)$ announced and priced a placement of new shares worth HK$80 billion, about US$10.2 billion, sold at an 8.4 per cent discount, with the net proceeds going into full-stack AI infrastructure. That is the fourth such raise in the same week. Intel sold US$20 billion of stock at US$95 a share;

$BABA-W(09988)$  fell 10% on Monday (24 August) morning after announcing plans to raise approximately HK$80 billion through a share sale. The placement is expected to dilute earnings and weigh on the stock’s near-term performance. Amplifying the move, the $Alibaba 5xShortSG270907(RHDW.SI)$  rose 50% in early trading, while the $Alibaba 5xLongSG270712(ZVNW.SI)$ fell a similar magnitude. The weakness spilled into the broader technology sector, pushing the $HSTECH(HSTECH)$  down approximately 3.5%. Correspondingly, the  $HSTECH 7xShortSG270309(9B2W.SI)$<

📊 Alibaba’s latest quarter shows a fascinating contradiction: the business is growing, especially in Cloud and AI, but the cost of that growth is becoming increasingly visible in earnings and cash flow. 🚀 Revenue Growth Is Still Real Alibaba’s August 2026 quarter, FY27 Q1, delivered revenue of approximately CN¥268.95bn, representing 8.6% year-over-year growth and slightly beating expectations. 📈 The biggest highlight was Cloud & AI Compute Services, which generated around CN¥48.4bn, up roughly 45% YoY. ☁️🤖 This was one of the strongest growth rates Alibaba’s cloud business has delivered in years and reinforces the argument that AI computing demand is becoming an increasingly important growth engine. However, investors need to look beyond the revenue headline. 👀 While sales are accelera

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totally agree that the persistent strength in Gold is telling that Bessent's rescue has failed. The fact that treasury showing panic and blinked is telling. @mr_cashcow come comment for coins.

Alibaba (BABA) June-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% YoY to ~RMB 269B. Cloud/AI external revenue accelerated to +45%, with AI-related products delivering a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Core e-commerce (customer management revenue) remains soft amid competition and macro pressures; overall profitability was impacted by heavy AI investments and lower investment gains. New models (Qwen series) and agentic tools are advancing. Shares have recovered from 52-week lows but remain volatile (recently around the $120 area). Valuation is inexpensive relative to AI/cloud growth potential; many analysts maintain Buy ratings with meaningful upside targets. Future potential: Improving via AI/cloud transformation, which is increasingly offsetting e-commerce headwinds. Success depends on su

Alibaba (BABA) June-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% YoY to ~RMB 269B. Cloud/AI external revenue accelerated to +45%, with AI-related products delivering a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Core e-commerce (customer management revenue) remains soft amid competition and macro pressures; overall profitability was impacted by heavy AI investments and lower investment gains. New models (Qwen series) and agentic tools are advancing. Shares have recovered from 52-week lows but remain volatile (recently around the $120 area). Valuation is inexpensive relative to AI/cloud growth potential; many analysts maintain Buy ratings with meaningful upside targets. Future potential: Improving via AI/cloud transformation, which is increasingly offsetting e-commerce headwinds. Success depends on su

The market is shifting from “Who beat expectations?” to “Who has genuinely improving fundamentals and sustainable cash flow?” $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ is the clearest example: it could have kept the tariff refund and increased earnings, but instead chose to cut prices. That decision signals that consumer purchasing power is becoming a concern. Comment for coins @Shyon @koolgal @Barcode @SPACE ROCKET @icycrystal

I would watch margins next quarter, while giving Alibaba a modest cloud re-rating. The bullish case is real: Cloud and Compute grew 45%, its strongest growth in 22 quarters, while cloud adjusted EBITA jumped 133% and margin expanded to about 12%. AI product revenue has also delivered triple-digit growth for 12 consecutive quarters.  But I would not fully re-rate BABA on cloud growth yet. The problem is capital intensity. Capex rose 75% to RMB67.7bn, while GAAP net profit fell roughly 75%. Management is effectively exchanging near-term earnings and free cash flow for future AI capacity.  The crucial question is therefore not whether AI demand exists. It clearly does. It is whether cloud revenue and margins can grow faster than AI infrastructure spending. My hierarchy: 1. Cloud gro

Alibaba is clearly choosing growth over near-term profits. A 75% jump in capital expenditure, largely directed toward AI infrastructure, looks painful today, but the 45% growth in cloud revenue suggests the investment is beginning to generate real demand. The bigger issue is whether this spending can eventually create operating leverage. A roughly 75% decline in reported net profit shows that Alibaba’s margin structure is still under serious pressure. I would not treat Alibaba as simply a “cheap AI stock.” It is a bet on whether AI and cloud can become the next profit engine. If AI monetization accelerates, today’s margin compression could prove temporary. If growth slows, however, investors may discover that the margin floor is lower than expected. For me, Alibaba is a long-term platform

Very good

Good

Hello. The Treasury's buyback tool was upsized again, and the bond market bought it for half a day. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Thursday that the size of each long-dated Treasury buyback had gone from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion, and could rise further. The 30-year yield fell as much as 10 basis points and the dollar index weakened — and then the bond market pushed back. The reason is simple enough: buybacks deal with liquidity, while the deficit, inflation and the term premium have not moved at all. There was a new variable that day: the consumer. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed down 0.87 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1.32 per cent, about 600 points — Barro

$NetEase(NTES)$ enters its August 20 second-quarter report with a profitable domestic games franchise and a growing collection of international titles. The central question is whether global releases can create durable growth without the marketing expense, development risk and regulatory exposure that have historically limited Chinese publishers overseas. NetEase reported its first quarter on May 21 for the period ended March 31. Revenue increased 6.1% year over year to RMB30.6 billion, or approximately $4.4 billion. Games and related services revenue rose 6.9% to RMB25.7 billion, accounting for about 84% of the company total. Gross profit increased 14.8% to RMB21.2 billion, while non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders reached RMB11.3 bi

🌟🌟🌟I vote $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ will close Flat in the -5% to 5% zone.  Alibaba has missed Wall Street's Consensus EPS expectations for 4 consecutive previous quarters.  Today's numbers confirm that heavy capital expenditure into AI cloud infrastructure continues to compress immediate profit margins, giving bears plenty of ammunition to cap any explosive surges. A "Very Red" crash is almost entirely off the table because the underlying top line volumes are exceptionally health.  Driven by an uncharacteristically strong double digit revenue expansion and massive domestic excitement surrounding its operating system integrations with $Apple

🔥 Alibaba, PDD, Tencent, JD.com & Sea/Shopee — which one is best positioned for the next AI + e-commerce cycle? I’ve been thinking about the recent debate around Alibaba and Michael Burry’s bearish view. Alibaba is down about 0.7% in the U.S. session in the screenshot, while its Hong Kong shares were slightly higher. But personally, I think focusing only on “Is Alibaba a buy or sell?” misses the bigger picture. 👉 The more interesting question is: What happens to the entire Asian internet sector as companies spend aggressively on AI, compete for online consumers, and try to turn that investment into higher future revenue? Instead of looking at one stock at a time, I want to compare several companies that are exposed to this broader trend: 🇨🇳 Alibaba — AI + Cloud + E-commerce 🇨🇳 PDD Hold

$Alibaba(BABA)$ has raised approximately $10.2 billion by selling new Hong Kong-listed shares after spending almost $10 billion on capital expenditure in a single quarter. The placement gives the company more capacity to build AI infrastructure, but it also transfers part of the risk to shareholders immediately. From this point, cloud growth must become cash generation quickly enough to justify dilution and the lost flexibility of a previously cash-rich balance sheet. $BABA-W(09988)$ reported on August 20 for the quarter ended June 30. Revenue increased 9% to RMB269.0 billion, while AI Cloud and Compute Services revenue rose 45% to RMB48.4 billion. AI-related product revenue reached RMB12.4 billion and d

I would wait rather than chase the insider buy. The more important signal has already arrived in the numbers: Alibaba’s cloud and AI-services revenue grew 45%, but quarterly net profit fell 75% as capex surged 75% to RMB67.68bn.  That actually strengthens both sides of the debate. Bulls can point to genuine cloud reacceleration, while bears can argue that Alibaba is effectively buying that growth at a very high near-term cost. The HK$80bn placement adds dilution and raises the hurdle further. Alibaba now needs to demonstrate that AI infrastructure produces attractive incremental returns, not merely faster revenue. Management is targeting roughly a mid-teens return on AI investment over three years.  So I would treat the CEO purchase as a confidence signal, not a buy signal. The m

📊 Alibaba’s latest quarter shows a fascinating contradiction: the business is growing, especially in Cloud and AI, but the cost of that growth is becoming increasingly visible in earnings and cash flow. 🚀 Revenue Growth Is Still Real Alibaba’s August 2026 quarter, FY27 Q1, delivered revenue of approximately CN¥268.95bn, representing 8.6% year-over-year growth and slightly beating expectations. 📈 The biggest highlight was Cloud & AI Compute Services, which generated around CN¥48.4bn, up roughly 45% YoY. ☁️🤖 This was one of the strongest growth rates Alibaba’s cloud business has delivered in years and reinforces the argument that AI computing demand is becoming an increasingly important growth engine. However, investors need to look beyond the revenue headline. 👀 While sales are accelera

Hello. Last friday's US session was a quiet one — $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ closed up 0.35 per cent, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 0.41 per cent and the Dow 0.98 per cent — though the week as a whole still finished lower. What mattered happened after the close. On 23 August $BABA-W(09988)$ announced and priced a placement of new shares worth HK$80 billion, about US$10.2 billion, sold at an 8.4 per cent discount, with the net proceeds going into full-stack AI infrastructure. That is the fourth such raise in the same week. Intel sold US$20 billion of stock at US$95 a share;

Owing the tax collector is a natural choice but it is not risk free. While there is pricing power now, the ability to do so subsequently depends on the tax payers willingness and ability to keep paying the toll - empty pockets or going into debt would be a concern for the tax collector too.

$BABA-W(09988)$  fell 10% on Monday (24 August) morning after announcing plans to raise approximately HK$80 billion through a share sale. The placement is expected to dilute earnings and weigh on the stock’s near-term performance. Amplifying the move, the $Alibaba 5xShortSG270907(RHDW.SI)$  rose 50% in early trading, while the $Alibaba 5xLongSG270712(ZVNW.SI)$ fell a similar magnitude. The weakness spilled into the broader technology sector, pushing the $HSTECH(HSTECH)$  down approximately 3.5%. Correspondingly, the  $HSTECH 7xShortSG270309(9B2W.SI)$<

Own the Toll Collector, Not the Toll Payer I’d rather own Nvidia than the companies paying the higher AI bill—but only if its pricing power proves sustainable. Rising memory costs are turning AI infrastructure into a margin test: Nvidia can pass costs downstream, while server builders and cloud providers face heavier capex. The bigger question is whether AI demand remains strong enough to absorb those increases. If customers keep spending aggressively, Nvidia’s pricing power strengthens. If budgets tighten, higher server costs could eventually slow deployments. So for me, Nvidia remains the “toll collector,” but valuation matters. I’d rather buy on meaningful pullbacks than chase strength ahead of earnings. @Marktomarket [微笑]

Hello. The Treasury's buyback tool was upsized again, and the bond market bought it for half a day. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Thursday that the size of each long-dated Treasury buyback had gone from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion, and could rise further. The 30-year yield fell as much as 10 basis points and the dollar index weakened — and then the bond market pushed back. The reason is simple enough: buybacks deal with liquidity, while the deficit, inflation and the term premium have not moved at all. There was a new variable that day: the consumer. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed down 0.87 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1.32 per cent, about 600 points — Barro

Alibaba (BABA) June-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% YoY to ~RMB 269B. Cloud/AI external revenue accelerated to +45%, with AI-related products delivering a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Core e-commerce (customer management revenue) remains soft amid competition and macro pressures; overall profitability was impacted by heavy AI investments and lower investment gains. New models (Qwen series) and agentic tools are advancing. Shares have recovered from 52-week lows but remain volatile (recently around the $120 area). Valuation is inexpensive relative to AI/cloud growth potential; many analysts maintain Buy ratings with meaningful upside targets. Future potential: Improving via AI/cloud transformation, which is increasingly offsetting e-commerce headwinds. Success depends on su

Alibaba (BABA) June-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% YoY to ~RMB 269B. Cloud/AI external revenue accelerated to +45%, with AI-related products delivering a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Core e-commerce (customer management revenue) remains soft amid competition and macro pressures; overall profitability was impacted by heavy AI investments and lower investment gains. New models (Qwen series) and agentic tools are advancing. Shares have recovered from 52-week lows but remain volatile (recently around the $120 area). Valuation is inexpensive relative to AI/cloud growth potential; many analysts maintain Buy ratings with meaningful upside targets. Future potential: Improving via AI/cloud transformation, which is increasingly offsetting e-commerce headwinds. Success depends on su

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I would watch margins next quarter, while giving Alibaba a modest cloud re-rating. The bullish case is real: Cloud and Compute grew 45%, its strongest growth in 22 quarters, while cloud adjusted EBITA jumped 133% and margin expanded to about 12%. AI product revenue has also delivered triple-digit growth for 12 consecutive quarters.  But I would not fully re-rate BABA on cloud growth yet. The problem is capital intensity. Capex rose 75% to RMB67.7bn, while GAAP net profit fell roughly 75%. Management is effectively exchanging near-term earnings and free cash flow for future AI capacity.  The crucial question is therefore not whether AI demand exists. It clearly does. It is whether cloud revenue and margins can grow faster than AI infrastructure spending. My hierarchy: 1. Cloud gro

$NetEase(NTES)$ enters its August 20 second-quarter report with a profitable domestic games franchise and a growing collection of international titles. The central question is whether global releases can create durable growth without the marketing expense, development risk and regulatory exposure that have historically limited Chinese publishers overseas. NetEase reported its first quarter on May 21 for the period ended March 31. Revenue increased 6.1% year over year to RMB30.6 billion, or approximately $4.4 billion. Games and related services revenue rose 6.9% to RMB25.7 billion, accounting for about 84% of the company total. Gross profit increased 14.8% to RMB21.2 billion, while non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders reached RMB11.3 bi

totally agree that the persistent strength in Gold is telling that Bessent's rescue has failed. The fact that treasury showing panic and blinked is telling. @mr_cashcow come comment for coins.

The market is shifting from “Who beat expectations?” to “Who has genuinely improving fundamentals and sustainable cash flow?” $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ is the clearest example: it could have kept the tariff refund and increased earnings, but instead chose to cut prices. That decision signals that consumer purchasing power is becoming a concern. Comment for coins @Shyon @koolgal @Barcode @SPACE ROCKET @icycrystal

Alibaba is clearly choosing growth over near-term profits. A 75% jump in capital expenditure, largely directed toward AI infrastructure, looks painful today, but the 45% growth in cloud revenue suggests the investment is beginning to generate real demand. The bigger issue is whether this spending can eventually create operating leverage. A roughly 75% decline in reported net profit shows that Alibaba’s margin structure is still under serious pressure. I would not treat Alibaba as simply a “cheap AI stock.” It is a bet on whether AI and cloud can become the next profit engine. If AI monetization accelerates, today’s margin compression could prove temporary. If growth slows, however, investors may discover that the margin floor is lower than expected. For me, Alibaba is a long-term platform

Very good

Good

🌟🌟🌟I vote $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ will close Flat in the -5% to 5% zone.  Alibaba has missed Wall Street's Consensus EPS expectations for 4 consecutive previous quarters.  Today's numbers confirm that heavy capital expenditure into AI cloud infrastructure continues to compress immediate profit margins, giving bears plenty of ammunition to cap any explosive surges. A "Very Red" crash is almost entirely off the table because the underlying top line volumes are exceptionally health.  Driven by an uncharacteristically strong double digit revenue expansion and massive domestic excitement surrounding its operating system integrations with $Apple