• FlowState AlphaFlowState Alpha
        ·05-25 17:57

        Global Market Outlook | Equities Learned to Live with 5% Yields. But Can They Survive a Rate Hike?

        Issued: May 25, 2026 Period Covered: May 19, 2026 → May 23, 2026 I. Core Pricing Phenomenon: V-Shaped Recovery + Dow 50,579 Last week we asked: CPI 3.8%, yields above 5%, equities at all-time highs — something has to break. Who blinks first? This week's answer: Nobody blinked. On Tuesday, the 30Y Treasury yield surged to 5.19% — highest since 2007. The 10Y hit 4.687%. The S&P 500 fell for three consecutive sessions to 7,353. The impossible triangle appeared to be cracking. Then, within 48 hours, a textbook V-shaped reversal. Friday close: Dow 50,579.70 — a new all-time record. S&P 7,473.47, within 0.4% of its May 14 high of 7,501. Weekly gain: +0.9%. Eight consecutive winning weeks. 10Y retreated to 4.57%. 30Y pulled back to 5.08%. VIX closed at 16.70 — lower than before the yield
        7692
        Report
        Global Market Outlook | Equities Learned to Live with 5% Yields. But Can They Survive a Rate Hike?
      • FlowState AlphaFlowState Alpha
        ·05-25 17:57

        Global Market Outlook | Equities Learned to Live with 5% Yields. But Can They Survive a Rate Hike?

        Issued: May 25, 2026 Period Covered: May 19, 2026 → May 23, 2026 I. Core Pricing Phenomenon: V-Shaped Recovery + Dow 50,579 Last week we asked: CPI 3.8%, yields above 5%, equities at all-time highs — something has to break. Who blinks first? This week's answer: Nobody blinked. On Tuesday, the 30Y Treasury yield surged to 5.19% — highest since 2007. The 10Y hit 4.687%. The S&P 500 fell for three consecutive sessions to 7,353. The impossible triangle appeared to be cracking. Then, within 48 hours, a textbook V-shaped reversal. Friday close: Dow 50,579.70 — a new all-time record. S&P 7,473.47, within 0.4% of its May 14 high of 7,501. Weekly gain: +0.9%. Eight consecutive winning weeks. 10Y retreated to 4.57%. 30Y pulled back to 5.08%. VIX closed at 16.70 — lower than before the yield
        7692
        Report
        Global Market Outlook | Equities Learned to Live with 5% Yields. But Can They Survive a Rate Hike?